Building on today's momentum


bY sUNIL mITTAL


In a couple of years from now India will complete two decades of economic liberalisation. The two decades have been a study in contrast. If the first was spent putting our house in order, the second was devoted to some really ground-breaking reforms, which have subsequently led us to a sustained 8 to 9 per cent GDP growth. Even as the Government prepares to give final shape to the next wave of reforms such as increase in the FDI limit in insurance and retail and introduction of the goods and service tax (GST), the Indian economy has reason to feel buoyant.


As we move into the next decade, the relative advantages of being a young nation will increasingly become visible. According to a UN estimate, the median age for India’s population in 2020, at 29 will be far healthier than its biggest competitor China at 37. In absolute numbers, the working-age population will have moved from 781 million (64 per cent of the total) in 2010 to 916 million (67 per cent of the total) by then. This huge addition in the working population would obviously make India one of the largest consumer markets in the world.


The apparent demographic dividend is, however, not going to occur by default. The large population needs continual nurture to make it the productive engine that we all want. Sustained investments in soft infrastructure such as health and education need to be supplemented by a conscious strategy to engage the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ in the growth process. I have always believed that inclusive growth will enable us to unleash the dormant energy lying at the bottom.


We have already witnessed a remarkable structural change in the economy over the last decade, with the conspicuous rise of the service sector. We have seen phenomenal expansion in sectors like telecom, travel, tourism, insurance, IT and retail. They have turned out to be the cradle for many entrepreneurial success stories and more are likely to follow in the coming decade. Another sector that is expected to see plenty of investment and entrepreneurial action would be infrastructure, which is going to be a key focus area for the Indian Government. Growth in manufacturing is also likely to remain buoyant; primarily because of the fact that, like services, the penetration of consumer goods is still quite low in the Indian market.

Telecom in India has been the flag bearer over the last decade, moving up from a penetration level of 2.3 per hundred in 1999 to more than 43 per hundred today. This penetration level could easily be doubled during the coming decade. Alongside this phenomenal incremental growth in penetration, the experience of telecom too is likely to undergo a big transformation following the introduction of new generation mobile broadband. The last few years have already given us glimpses of telecom’s potential in the areas of e-governance, m-commerce and m-banking. The coming decade will see path-breaking innovation in these areas. The qualitative transformation of the telecom landscape will surely be more gripping than its quantitative growth which, among other things, could be a function of increased income levels.

The coming decade is also likely to witness a more proactive corporate sector in philanthropy programmes. The changed approach is evolving from rapidly multiplying corporate wealth as well as a deep-rooted conviction and the sincere urge to play a role in social welfare. On the personal front, I would like to see our philanthropic arm, the Bharti Foundation, which presently serves over thirty thousand underprivileged Indian children in 236 schools across five Indian states, graduate to a larger and more impactful role in Indian education.

In view of the rapidity of today’s changes, I expect the next decade to usher in more profound changes in India’s economic landscape. A rapid growth in income and consumption is a fair expectation. What remains to be seen, however, is how equitable and inclusive this growth will be.

The author, Sunil Mittal is the Founder, Executive Chairman & MD of Bharti Airtel Ltd.