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Saturday, October 1, 2011

The perils and pitfalls of collision politics

By J Mulraj

1st Oct 2011

The first time India had a true coalition Government, a stockmarket friend of mine, a Punjabi, asked me what I thought about the 'collision' Government. I asked him if he was mispronouncing the word or being prescient! It turns out it was the latter! And it has turned out this way because the politicians consider their job as a business, instead of a duty, and the opportunity provided to them by being elected as a means to amass wealth, instead of to serve the nation.

The Ministries allotted to the coalition partners then become fiefdoms which they use to extract tolls, and other partners are asked not to interfere in their 'jagirs'. A Prime Minister known more for his honesty than his backbone, was unable to prevent exploitation of fiefdoms, with the result that there is now such a policy paralysis, it threatens the success of the India story.

Take the scandal in the allotment of spectrum for 2G telephony, for which several politicians/bureaucrats and corporate executives are in jail. It created such a big scandal because the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) declared the loss at a whopping Rs 1.76 lac crores!

Well, it now transpires that the initial figure was Rs 2600 crores, and how this grew to the scandalous figure it did, is anybody's guess.

The scam was NOT in selling spectrum at low prices; this was the declared policy of the Government and was a correct one, as it brought down the cost to the consumer and ushered in the telecom revolution to the extent that there are now 750 m. mobile phone subscribers.

The scam was in the out of turn allotment of spectrum to those so favoured, and in the way in which Government did not prevent the subsequent sale of spectrum, at overnight profits, by the allotees.

Yet because of the Rs 1.76 lac crore figure, and the natural public outrage that followed, the Government had to be seen to be taking action and has incarcerated several persons, including corporate employees who cannot be, by any stretch of imagination, thought to be beneficiaries of the scam. This has turned coalition into collision.

This poor governance is seriously affecting the economy, and thus the stockmarket. There are several examples.

One of the fallouts of the corruption scandals of the UPA Government was the counter attack on opposition Governments. This led to the fall of the Karnataka Chief Minister, Yeddyurappa, and the arrest of some of his backers under allegations of illegal mining of iron ore in the district of Bellary. In typical 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater' the court ordered a shut down of iron ore mines. Over 70 sponge iron units in Bellary have shut down, with a loss of 200,000 jobs and causing such a severe shortage of iron ore that JSW Steel is operating its plant at only 30% and threatening to close down. Without the steel it produces, consumer industries such as automobiles and construction industry, are affected. So what started off as a political attack and counterattack, inevitably worked its way down to the economy.

Or take the power sector. Gas based power plants account for 12% of power capacity and several are in final stages of closure, including Reliance Power's 2400 MW Samalkot unit. They need 28 mmscmd of gas, but gas production has fallen. Reliance Industries' KG 6 field production has fallen from 60 to under 45 mmscmd, though it was expected to go to 80. According to DGH the new blocks would be unviable at the Government fixed price of $ 4.2/unit (competing imported LNG costs $ 15/unit) and gas prices are to be revised in 2014. An upward revision in gas prices, together with partner BP's technology, would provide the spur for gas output to be raised, and of the gas based power producing companies to start producing. Else we could face a further shortage of power. Raising gas prices in the politically charged environment would also be fraught with difficulty.

For coal based power plants, the shortage of coal looms large. This is due to more stringent environmental focus making it difficult to get clearance for new blocks. Coal output for August has fallen 15.3%, and has brought down the growth in index of core industry production in August to just 3.5%, an 11 month low. Gas production is down 5.3% Industry has also to deal with inflexible labour laws. They are unable to shut down, if the unit becomes unviable for a myriad of reasons, without permission to lay off workers, after due compensation.

Industry gets around this by hiring workers on a contractual basis.

This has caused them grief at the Manesar plant of Maruti Suzuki, India's largest car maker, which has seen sporadic labour problems of late. The contract workers are demanding tenure. Maruti is now contemplating expansion by setting up a $ 1.3b. plant in Gujarat.

The several problems industry has to deal with - environment, land acquisition for growth, labour issues, policy paralysis, corruption to obtain entitlements, protection from Maoists which the State has been unable to provide, shortage of raw materials, etc - makes one wonder where the jobs will come from, in order for India to encash its demographic dividend. All are manifestations of poor governance.

Industry prefers to expand abroad, where they do not have to deal with poor governance; the outbound FDI is higher than inbound FDI.

To add to domestic problems enumerated above, are the global concerns, especially over Europe. The focus now is on Greece, the country-equivalent of Lehman, and the hope is that if a default can be averted in Greece, it would stave off the falling nine-pin affect of others such as Portugal, Italy, Spain and France, in that order.

Global stockmarkets cheered when Europe announced that it would leverage the Euro 440b. EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) and stave off a default by Greece. A lot of European banks, especially French, have lent money against Greek Government bonds and France would have a banking crisis. A lot of American banks have lent to the French, so the crisis would jump the Atlantic.

However, the Stratfor article mentioned above maintains that a default is inevitable by Greece. And that the EFSF has to be Euro 2 trillion to stave off a crisis in Europe! This is very very scary.

On a more hopeful note, as per the Economist, Sep 24, 2011, 20 out of 42 economies studied by it grew, in the latest quarter by a rate of over 3% per annum. Of these, only 2 were traditionally 'rich'countries, viz. Sweden and Austria and the rest were emerging markets and newly rich countries like Taiwan and HK. The growth in emerging markets continues; the IMF has assessed they will grow at 6% in 2012 versus less than 2% growth by the rich countries.

Thus the balance is shifting eastwards. Another sign of that is that whilst Chinese bonds of $ 3.1 issued in HK recently, got 4X demand, despite a lower yield, the bonds issued by Italy got a poor response, despite a higher yield.

Last week the BSE-Sensex gained 291 points, to end at 16453, thanks entirely to the 472 point gain on Tuesday, when the EFSF boost was announced. The NSE-Nifty added 75 points over the week, to end at 4943.

However, the EFSF is insufficient to stave off a Greek tragedy and a wider European one. So global factors are bearish.

So are Indian factors, thanks to abysmal governance. Had the opposition BJP got its act together and nominated a leader for the next elections, it would have been on a strong wicket, given the disarray in the ruling Congress party. But BJP is also squabbling. So one can expect more brinkmanship politicking and non governance. Which means that the market would slide further and could go below the 16,000 support level.

By J Mulraj

Sikkim earthquake by ActionAid

30 Sep 2011 14:28
Source: alertnet // Nita Bhalla

A massive earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale jolted Sikkim in India at 6.10 p.m. on 18th Sept, 2011. With its epicentre in the north of the Himalayan state, it left a trail of destruction, killing close to a 100 people and wiping one hundred thousand crore rupees worth of infrastructure. Over 90 percent homes have been damaged in the north area and about 10 percent have been destroyed completely.
ActionAid India’s assessment team, which was one of the first to reach the worst affected parts, captured these images, revealing the massive damage to homes and infrastructure.
While the relief support for immediate needs is underway, the larger question of rebuilding Sikkim remains.
.


Houses were uprooted from their foundations because of the quake. This one was seen near Meyong.


Rampant commercialisation and lack of observance of building norms has led to mushrooming of unsafe structures. Like this five-storey building in Chungthang, which now stands dangerously and would have to be brought down.

A group of locals at a church on the way to Mangan.

The quake was followed by landslides and rains which further cut-off communication to the affected areas. The team came across many collapsed homes with families attempting to salvage whatever they could, braving the fear of aftershocks.

The main road from Mangan to Chungthang covered in debris from landslides, a lifeline to the state which came into being over three decades back, was blocked for over a week delaying response.

For several nights after the quake families were in camps at Chnungthang due to fear of homes collapsing. But eventually the homes will have to rebuilt and made safe. For now that aspect of rehabilitation is not under serious discussion.

People in the town Dikchu taking shelter in makeshift camps, shop verandas by the roadside and under puja pandals. The town is located between two hydro power projects. Buildings had already become weak from continuous blasts from the project construction. The change of the course of river due to the barrage has also put pressure on the bank by which the town is situated. Massive cracks have developed during the Sept 18th quake between the road and the buildings on the side of the river and they look like they could collapse any moment.

Chungthang was impossible to access via road soon after the quake. The 26 km long tunnel dug through the mountains supposed to divert the river Teesta to the power projects when the project is completed worked as an approach road.

source: http://www.trust.org/

Understand the causes of changes in Himalayan eco-system

Understand the causes of changes in Himalayan eco-system

by Vilas Rao Deshmukh

Pressure of population, exploitation of natural resources stress on Himalaya: Jayanthi Natarajan

Follow Gandhiji’s message for sustainability of Himalayas: Dr T Ramasamy

Shri Vilas Rao Deshmukh, Minister of Science and technology and earth Sciences said Himalayan ecosystem is vital to the ecological security of the Indian landmass. It provides forest cover, feeds perennial rivers that provide water for drinking, irrigation, and hydropower, and provides a home and a basis for sustainable biodiversity, agriculture, and tourism Addressing at the India-ICIMOD Day celebration here today he said, “The Himalayan ecosystem is highly vulnerable to the stress caused by increased pressure of population, exploitation of natural resources and other related challenges. Climate change may adversely impact the Himalayan ecosystem through increased temperature, altered precipitation patterns, and episodes or drought.”

Considering the fragility and importance of the Himalaya, Shri Deshmukh informed that a National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem ( NMSHE) has been included in the eight National Missions of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) with the objectives of conserving and protecting Himalayan glaciers and its ecosystem. It is the only area specific Mission. Its specific action area is to improve trans-boundary exchange of information through mutually agreed mechanisms and ICIMOD being an independent ‘Mountain Learning and Knowledge Centre’ can play an important role in strengthening such trans-boundary exchange of information among the eight regional member countries of the Hindu Kush –Himalayas area.

The technical document of NMSHE mission document envisages generation of sound scientific knowledge and strengthening the knowledge Institutions in the IHR through six subject wise task forces. Under the capacity building and knowledge sharing program several initiatives are taken by ICIMOD. This can be utilized for increasing collaboration between ICIMOD and Department of Science and Technology and further strengthening the institutions in the regional member countries, the Minister explained.

Smt Jayanthi Natarajan, Minister of State (IC), Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF), Government of India in her inaugural speech highlighted the importance of Himalaya, and emphasized on its vulnerability both on account of specific geological reasons and the stress imposed by increased pressure of population, exploitation of natural resources and other related challenges. She also mentioned that this occasion gives us opportunity to take note of ICIMOD’s activities in India under various Research & Development initiatives. The Minister said, “The region is likely to face increased impacts under changing climate that would greatly affect the very sustenance of indigenous communities in uplands and downstream dwellers as well. Under these circumstances role and responsibility of ICIMOD as a Regional Knowledge and Information Centre, and the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF), especially through G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, as a nodal Ministry in India increases several fold.”
Smt Natarajan highlighted some of the recent initiatives of Government of India, particularly with respect to the Himalaya. She emphasized that the governance is the bottom-line for success. Smt Natarajan hoped this event will help in creating the required awareness amongst participants about the sensitivity of the Himalayan Ecosystem and provide a forum for knowledge and experience sharing. She emphasized that considering the ecological and socio-cultural sensitivity of the region; ICIMOD and MoEF would require to further intensify their efforts through enhanced cooperation with partner institutions in India. She urged all partners to come forward to strengthen the collaboration with ICIMOD. Smt. Natarajan also released a booklet highlighting ICIMOD-India collaboration, since inception.
Dr T Ramasamy said that atmosphere has no boundary. Changes we bring in one part of the planet will necessarily help the whole planet. He said, “The Himalayas is truly a very complex and fragile eco-system. Traditional knowledge will form an important ingredient in the development of the national mission on Himalayas. Traditional knowledge of local people and villagers who live in this area is enormous. This old technology will help in adaptation of climate change issue in Himalayas.” Dr Ramasamy termed this as an unusual mission of sustaining eco-system. Ecosystem is permanent and one simple formula which Gandhiji has given to us will help in solving problems, he added. Gandhiji’s message is “Take only a portion of what the nature has given to you.” Dr Ramasamy said that this is the principle of sustainability. This message gives us a lesson and from traditional knowledge how to prevent losses.
Earlier, Mr Andreas Schild, Director General, ICIMOD, said that we seek and solicit intensified guidance from the Government of India and its network of agencies and expertise in the years to come. Mr Schild said, “ ICIMOD is aware of the India’s increasing influence at the global level. ICIMOD and its management wish to continue to benefit from the country’s robust technical expertise as well as economic strength in building and implementing its regional mission. It is this context that we have organized a day’s programme to highlight the ICIMOD-India collaboration and further strengthen it. He expressed hope that ICIMOD and its management wish to continue to benefit from the country’s robust technical expertise as well as economic strength in building and implementing its regional mission. It is this context that we have organized a day’s programme to highlight the ICIMOD-India collaboration and further strengthen it.”
Talking about ICIMOD Mr Schild said, “This is an independent non-political intergovernmental organization established in 1983, whose primary objective is to promote the development of economically sound mountain ecosystems and to improve the living standards of mountain populations in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region. ICIMOD has been making concerted efforts to place itself strategically as a regional mountain institution catering to the knowledge needs of its regional member countries (RMCs). The centre is continuously making efforts to absorb and effect change to strengthen its role as a knowledge development and sharing platform and to help the RMCs gain from each other’s experiences and best practices.”
“ICIMOD has developed, its programmes and strategies have evolved through the three distinct phases of inception, the Regional Collaborative Programme (RCP), and the Medium-Term Action Plan (MTAP). Through all three phases, India has been an active RMC, playing a lead role in formulation of the centre’s institutional and programme strategies and action plans. Its contribution has gradually become more and more important and useful in the development of regional themes for action in the HKH. In recent years the Government of India has shown increasing interest in ICIMOD activities, reflected in the participation and contribution of government officials and other Indian partner agencies in ICIMOD programmes and events, “ he added.
The ICIMOD and the G B Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development (GBPIHED) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Sept 25, 2008 with the approval of GOI to increase the potential for mutually beneficial research work, enable efficient co-ordination and ensure the sustainability of partnership between the ICIMOD and the GOI. The one day workshop ‘Challenges in Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation – Potential for Collaboration between ICIMOD and India’ was organized to celebrate on the occasion of first ever ICIMOD-India Day celebration today in New Delhi.
The other important consideration for this MOU is that both the ICIMOD and the GBPIHED, will be able to appreciate each other’s comparative advantages and collaborate to achieve the environmentally sustainable development in the Indian Himalayan region through establishing a mutually agreed mechanism of experience sharing on similar aspects in other parts of the Himalayan region, including other member countries.
The workshop was jointly organized by the Ministry of Environment, GoI and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a Kathmandu based intergovernmental organization of eight countries of the Hindu Kush –Himalaya, which was established in 1983.Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Mayanmar, Nepal and Pakistan are members of ICIMOD.
KP



(Release ID :76386)
source;PIB

Southwest Monsoon withdrawing- LEFT GREAT MOISTURE.

Southwest Monsoon withdrawn from Northwest India and Adjoining Central India

Monsoon will withdraw with scattered rain/thundershowers over south Peninsula during next week and northeastern states will have isolated rain during first half of the week and thereafter it will withdraw. Monsoon would withdraw from remaining parts of central India and some parts of east India. Mainly dry weather would prevail over northwest India and central India. During 8-14 October, Further withdrawal of southwest Monsoon is likely from remaining parts of east India and some parts from northeast India where as scattered rainfall is likely to continue over south Peninsula.

Current synoptic conditions as on today suggests that a north-south trough extends from Assam & Meghalaya to south Tamilnadu across western parts of Bay of Bengal. An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over interior Tamilnadu and neighbourhood in lower levels persists. Dry northwesterly winds are prevailing over northwest and central India in lower levels.

This years Seasonal Rainfall Scenario for the country so far up to 28 September has been 2% above LPA. Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 8, normal over 25 and deficient in 3 (over east & northeast India) sub-divisions. In area wise distribution, 92% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. 459 (76%) out of 603 districts of the country have received normal to excess rainfall.

source:sandrp.in

Kumar Mangalam Birla's credit card cloned; ‘shopper' binges for Rs 2.86 lakh

Press Trust of India
PTI 
Mr Kumar Mangalam Birla
Mr Kumar Mangalam Birla
Industrialist Mr Kumar Mangalam Birla has cheated off Rs 2.86 lakh as his ‘cloned' credit card was used to purchase jewellery and electronic gadgets in Bangalore when he was in Mumbai, police said today.
“An FIR was registered against the unidentified person/s under Section 420 of the India Penal Code and Section 66 CD of the Information Technology Act,” Mr Vasant Tajane, Senior Inspector at Worli police station here said.
According to the police, on September 24, Mr Birla's representative, Mr G. K. Tulsiyani, lodged a complaint stating that the credit card bill of Mr Birla showed that he had shopped in Bangalore for five days from September 15.Mr Tulsiyani said Mr Birla was in Mumbai between September 15 and 20. And the platinum card was with Mr Birla. So it is a case of using cloned credit card,” Mr Tajane said.
 

Owing to the damage of the Tashiling Secretariat in the recent earthquake, the following offices has been relocated as  under:
SL.NO
OFFICES
RELOCATED AT
1.
Home Department
State Guest House, Bhanu Path
2.
HRDD
DIET Building, Palace Road
3.
Law Department
Palace Guest House, Near Tashiling
4.
CM’s Office
Samman Bhawan, Mintogang Gate
5.
DOPART
Community Hall, Development Area
6.
Culture
Community Hall, Development Area
7.
Land Revenue & Disaster Management Department
Community Hall, Development Area
8.
Development Planning Economic Reforms & NEC Affairs Department
Community Hall, Development Area
9.
Finance Department
Community Hall, Development Area
                                           Back
Source: Official portal of Govt of Sikkim

Save the heart to be hale and hearty

Olympia Shilpa Gerald
source;The Hindu  
 
Treatment within one hour from heart attack can save life
Every year international campaigns turn the spotlight on better heart health on World Heart Day, citing cardiovascular ailments (heart disease and stroke) as the world's biggest killer disease. But not only is heart disease preventable with lifestyle modification but timely treatment by identifying symptoms and seeking medical attention can prevent death due to heart disease and salvage heart muscle.
“Much of the problem lies in denial of symptoms and delay in treatment,” says M.Chenniappan, senior cardiologist and president, ECG-ECHO Club. “Treatment within 30 to 60 minutes from the onset of attack, called as golden hour, can not only prevent death but save the heart muscle. Delay in treatment may save the patient's life but would leave him with poor quality of life and reduced heart health.”
“Though thrombolytic drugs can be administered up to 12 hours of the attack, immediate attention adds quality and quantity to a patient's life”, reiterates Nallusamy Senthilkumar, cardiologist, KMC Hospitals.
Though all chest pain is not identified with cardiac pain ( ulcer, muscle and bone pain being other causes) it is important to seek medical care at the nearest treating centre if pain persists for over 20 minutes. Cardiac pain is usually compressive and is accompanied by perspiration and palpitation.
Those who experience symptoms for the first time would do well not to ignore it even if chest pain is of the pricking, burning or pressing kind, warns Dr. Senthilkumar.
Symptoms are not similar
Noting that diseases don't read textbooks, Dr.Chenniappan cautions symptoms are not of a similar pattern. “Don't diagnose or decide treatment if you fall into the high-risk category: smokers, persons with diabetes, hyper tension, high cholesterol, obesity or mental stress.” Heart attack symptoms are also usually typical in diabetics characterised by unusual tiredness and hiccups, which can be confused with low sugar symptoms.
Dr.Chenniappan stresses on the need for multi-specialty hospitals to adopt a special policy to handle chest pain in order to achieve best results. “Chest pain cases should be attended promptly instead of putting the patient through prolonged emergency procedure. Even angioplasty is effective if performed within 120 minutes of heart attack.”
Improving care in periphery and rural areas is a prerequisite to ensure that someone who has a heart attack does not suffer due to lack of access to a cardiologist, he adds.
The ECG-ECHO club trains general practitioners in rural pockets to administer preliminary treatment for cardiac emergencies. By networking with physicians in tertiary care hospitals, advanced care is provided with minimised time delay as practitioners apprise counterparts in city hospitals and arrangements are put in place before patients reach the hospital.
Prevention
According to Dr.Senthilkumar, smoking is the major cause for heart attacks in persons below 40, while Dr.Chenniappan says that mental stress as a contributory factor cannot be underestimated. It is lifestyle modification and public education, not advanced technologies, which have brought down heart attack rates in some parts of the world, he adds.

Friday, September 30, 2011

PM visits Sikkim, announces 1000 cr. rupee relief

PM visits Sikkim, announces 1000 cr. rupee relief


The Prime Minister visited Gangtok and made an aerial survey of the quake affected areas of the state of Sikkim. Dr. Manmohan Singh flew over the affected areas of Mangan, Chungthang, Lachen and Lachung and visited the injured at the Government Hosiptal in Gangtok. He was briefed of the damage and loss of lives and the relief and rehabilitation efforts at a review meeting attended by the Governor Mr. B.P Singh, Chief Minister Mr. Chamling and senior officials.

The Prime Minister after the visit said that he was deeply saddened at the tragic loss of lives, the injuries and the extensive damage caused by the earthquake.

The Prime Minister said that a central team of experts will arrive in Gangtok in the next week to identify appropriate design for damaged houses to be reconstructed. These constructions will be funded entirely by the Central government and from the Prime Minister's National Relief Fund.

He said the main access roads to Sikkim have been restored, the road form Mangan to Chungthang will be restored by mid October, and work will continue to ensure that other roads are operational as early as possible. A special dispensation will be provided under the Centrally sponsored and central sector schemes for enabling the reconstruction of infrastructure like rural roads, school buildings, health centre buildings and anganwadi buildings.

The Prime Minister assured the state that work on restoration of drinking water supply sources, reconstruction of irrigation channels, and construction of flood protection works will also be taken up under central schemes. He said that damaged national monuments will be restored by the Ministry of Culture.

The Prime Minister said that keeping in view the extensive and unprecedented damage the Central Government is ready to provide assistance of 1,000 crore rupees for relief, restoration and reconstruction work.


***


RCJ/SH/SK
(Release ID :76333)

PM in Sikkim

PM in Sikkim, visit quake-hit areas; announces Rs1,000 crore


IANS



Gangtok: September 29

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday arrived in Sikkim on a daylong visit to assess and review the damage caused by the Sep 18 earthquake.

Prime Minister Singh announced a Rs1,000 crore grant to Sikkim to tide over the devastation caused by the September 18 earthquake that killed 80 people and caused large scale damage to private property.

“The Prime Minister announced a Rs1,000 crore package to Sikkim and also assured all help and cooperation from the central government to fight the tragedy and devastation caused by the earthquake,” a Sikkim government spokesperson said.

Manmohan Singh made the announcement during a meeting with Chief Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling at capital Gangtok.

Before that Singh made an aerial survey of the worst-affected north Sikkim areas.

“On arrival in Gangtok after making the aerial survey, the prime minister visited the injured at the Sikkim Manipal Hospital,” a government spokesperson said.

The prime minister was expected to announce a financial package which he did, for Sikkim to tide over the devastation caused by the 6.8-magnitude tremor that rocked the region Sep 18 and killed close to 80 people and left about 350 injured in the state
We are doing our level best,’ says NDRF head DGP JKS Rawat

Posted on September 29, 2011
source: Sikkim Mail


The 400 rescuers of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) were airlifted from Greater Nodia and Kolkata on 18th September when a violent earthquake rocked the state of Sikkim. The entire teams of NRDF had reached Bagdogra airport by early morning of 19th September whereas five teams of NDRF reached Gangtok by the same evening and were further deployed to North District of Sikkim, Mangan. Two teams of NRDF were also deployed at Chungthang and Lachung respectively. One team of NDRF was based at Gangtok focusing the city and, a standby team at Siliguri.

While speaking to media, NDRF head DIG JKS Rawat, told that their first tasked was to search out the dead’s and reach in the remote areas of Mangan and Chungthang. Similarly, to assess damage of houses, requirement of food, medicines, tents, to locate medical camps, extend assistance in loading and distribution of relief materials at Mangan Helipad.

Rawat mentioned that considering the execution of task, NDRF has divided rescuers in small teams consisting of 15 to 20 personnel and with the help of local guides climbed mountains terrain of north district of Mangan and reached Bring Bong, Saffu, Biha, Shipgyar, Bey, Lingzye, Manul, Thang, Ramam, Panan, Thung and Barakh. To ensure proper search NDRF teams remained in these areas for three days self contained in all respect and provided valuable information about the damages of houses, the requirement of tents, food and medicines which helped the district administration of Mangan to plan the distribution of relief material in an organised manner. He also said that during the rescue operation, one of the NRDF team was able to extricate a dead body of a lady and of a boy named, Subrata Ranjan Nath (68 yrs) residence of west Bengal from Shipgyer village. The dead bodies of Akhil Roy (45 yrs) of New Bugaigaon, Assam and Tapan Biswas (35 yrs) of west Bengal, from Moonlight School Chungthang was found. Furthermore the NRDF team at Gangtok retrieved one dead body of Ramakanta Singh (27 yrs) residence of Dzongue from a building that collapsed at Baluakhani near Vajra Cinema Hall.

NRDF organized Medical camps on 21st September at Manul and Mangan treated 721 patients with free medicines and provided 200 tents to DM Mangan on 22nd September for the earthquake victims. Further the NRDF also recovered five dead bodies from Chungthang, Bringbong, Shipgyer and Gangtok (from collapsed building). Likewise, on 27th September, NRDF rescuers along with local guides helped villagers of Tung area to reach Mangan safely. NRDF is also helping loading and unloading of relief materials at helipads. Governor of Sikkim, Balmiki Prasad Singh visited NRDF Medical Camp at Mangan and appreciated efforts of NRDF

Helping Hands Sikkim,

Helping Hands Sikkim, a group of 35 NGOs, providing relief

September 29, 2011
source:Sikkim Mail


The Helping Hands Sikkim (HHS), an umbrella organization formed for providing earthquake relief has been working actively in the state by sending relief materials to the earthquake affected areas across state. The organization is sending relief materials every day to the affected with the help of choppers.

The HHS consists of 35 Non Government Organizations which includes State, National and International. Speaking to media coordinator Ningku Lachungpa informed that the organization have send about 20 adventures member team to North Sikkim for supporting the rescue operation, but have failed reach some affected areas due to bad weather.

She stated that the organization is sending the relief materials to the affected areas as per the demands made by the victims and the relief camps respectively. The affected people sheltering in different camps in north Sikkim does not require supply of rice as the state government has been providing adequately. Non Government Organizations (NGOs) from outside state has been sending relief material to the victims in state in the name of HHS. Delhi, Kolkata and Siliguri had sent relief materials on 27th September.

The organization currently is sending edible items in packed manner, one is raw and the other is ready materials.The ready-made items packed are Bitten Rice, Biscuits, Maggi, and Wai Wai whereas the raw food packages contain Potato, Onion, Cooking oil and Masala.She mentioned that the affected people are presently demanding Torch Light, Tarpaulin, Generator, Blankets, Solar lamps and profile.

‘HHS’ is working in close coordination with State Government, State Disaster Management Cells, Local NGOs, 8th Gorkha and Sikh Regiment based at Lachung, SDM Chungthang and his team, the Pipons, Local Panchayats, Department of Forest and Department of Police respectively.

The earthquake of a very high magnitude that shook the Himalayan state of Sikkim on 18th of September 2011 caused extensive damage to human lives and property. There was an immediate need for relief work from NGO’s and the State Government for rehabilitation of the Victims. Most of the NGO’s, Business Organizations and individuals started relief operations independently which led to duplication of efforts.
Considering which it was decided to form an umbrella organization under the banner of “Inter Agency Response Group” later amended to “Helping Hands Sikkim” where each organization nominated two members for co-ordinate relief.

“Helping Hands, Sikkim” is headed by Palzor Lachungpa as its President including Karma Laden Dorji as Vice President, Kailash Agarwal as General Secretary and Ashok Sarda as Treasurer.

The Helping Hands Sikkim has also extended its gratitude towards the heli service provided by the army and STDC in air dropping the relief materials to the affected
Cansahyog, a Cancer support group, launched in Gangtok

September 29, 2011
source:Sikkim Mail


A Cancer help line and Cancer support group called ‘Cansahyog’ a joint venture by Inner Wheel Club of Gangtok and Rotary Club, Gangtok has been lunched recently here in the state a press release informs. The event was attended by Doctors of STNM hospital, members of both the clubs, NGO’s, family members of the affected patients and general public respectively.

The district chairman Dr. Wasima Jahan declared the cancer helpline open during the event. District Governor elected Rtn. Dr. Yogesh Verma informed that gathering about the cancer scenario in state. Adding more he said that Sikkim has a predominance of stomach cancer among male and cervical cancer in females. Inner wheel member Dr. Neeti Nepal highlighted the common cancer, their symptoms and prevention. Whereas the former chairman of Inner Wheel Club, Gangtok Dr. Renu Verma informed that the main aim of the project is to counsel, guide, inform and help cancer patients and their families to fight the dreadful disease. Rtn. Naveen Soni of Rotary Club of Kalimpong in his brief address explained in detail the information available in website cancer Nirvana which he has researched and put together after losing his mother to cancer.

Naveen Soni has a compilation of 1700 pages to answer all questions in minds of the cancer patients and their families. Soni gave away a large number of CD’s which had the compilation for distribution too.

The release mentions that most of the specialists have given their consent to be on the panel of Cansahyog to guide and counsel the patients in the support

source:MINT

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Indo-US ties can counter Chinese hegemony

G.PARTHASARATHY

What the Soviets would have called “great Han chauvinism” is very much on display. Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi nonchalantly told his Singaporean counterpart in December 2010, with an arrogance reminiscent of the rulers of the Ming dynasty: “China is a big country and other countries are just small countries and that's just a fact.”

The past two years have seen China resorting to coercion and even use of force, in enforcing its maritime boundary claims with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. The same assertiveness, bordering on arrogance, is manifested in China's dealing with, India, which it treats as what is yet another “'small country” in its neighbourhood.

AXIS WITH PAKISTAN
Leaving aside Chinese manoeuvres to undermine India in forums like the NSG, China has actively colluded with Pakistan in blocking international efforts to get the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which masterminded the attack on our Parliament, declared as an International Terrorist Organisation, by the UN Security Council. It had acted identically in blocking efforts to get the Lashkar-e -Taiba outlawed, prior to the 26/11 outrage.

More importantly, China now acts as though the POK and the Northern Areas of Gilgit and Baltistan are an integral part of Pakistan, with only Indian controlled Jammu and Kashmir, being a “disputed” territory. The “Chief Minister” of Gilgit-Baltistan, Syed Mehdi Shah, twice visited China in the recent past and was received at the highest levels. Contrast this with the entire issue of stapled visas for residents, including military officers, serving in J&K. Moreover, planned Chinese investment for infrastructure and hydro-electric projects in Gilgit Baltistan is estimated to be of the order of $10 billion, with growing suspicions that the tunnels being built are really meant for nuclear weapon and missile silos

All this, is happening when Pakistan is tearing itself apart under the weight of its internal contradictions, combined with stupidity of its military in cultivating radical Islami groups to “bleed'' India and force the Americans out of Afghanistan.

US APPREHENSIONS
These were amongst the issues considered by a high level non-official group from the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Aspen Institute India (AII) has now come out with a detailed report on shaping the contours of a US-India partnership to deal with global challenges. While the Indian participants included former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra and former Ambassadors to the US K.S. Bajpai and Naresh Chandra, the American side included luminaries like the former Director of Intelligence, Denis Blair, Bush Administration NSA, Stephen Headley and former Ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill. The CFR-AII report comes at a time when the US finds that its two Cold War Allies, China and Pakistan, are either directly challenging its global pre-eminence, or supporting terrorists killing its soldiers in Afghanistan.

The CFR-AII report notes that Pakistan's intelligence agencies “support terrorist groups that target India, Afghanistan and ISAF forces in Afghanistan”. After the Abbotabad raid which eliminated Osama bin Laden, the US is finding that General Kayani, whom it had touted for long as a “tough professional”“ is now arranging for the Haqqani Group to even attack its Embassy in Kabul. The report states: “Pakistan is showing alarming signs of systemic decline. Its economy continues to underperform peers in Asia”.

It significantly notes that the US should “condition military aid to Pakistan on concrete anti-terrorist measures by the Pakistan military against groups targeting India and the US”. The report dwells on the need for a regional framework including the US, China, Russia, Iran, the Central Asian Republics, India and Pakistan to evolve measures for stability in Afghanistan.

INDIAN OCEAN NETWORK
Predictably, the report asserts that India and the US have no intention of “confrontation with China, or to forge a coalition for China's containment”. But, the sub-text is clear. It advocates a strengthened India-US Partnership for a viable “balance of power” in Asia, covering both the Indian Ocean, which is described as “home to critical global lines of communication, with an estimated 50 per cent of the world's container products and 70 per cent of the ship borne oil and petroleum transiting through its waters,” and to the Asia Pacific-Region.

Interestingly, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, recently referred to the “'Asia-Pacific”' as the “Indo-Pacific,” quite obviously having taken note on India's growing ties with Australia, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The report is upbeat on US-India economic ties and makes significant recommendations for enhancing cooperation in areas like space, defence production and defence R&D.

The report stresses the significant potential for cooperation in areas like infrastructure, transportation, energy and agriculture. However, no Indian interest is served in joining forums such as Nuclear Suppliers' Group, as suggested by the report, where it is considered less equal than others.

The CFR-Aspen India report carries wide-ranging recommendations which South Block should look at seriously.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.
source;The Hindu


Source: Haalkhabar & sandrp.in

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Will the Chinese dragon burn its own tail?

China September 27 updateAt least seven people in Yadong died in the quake, while 24 were injured. The quake affected more than 13,790 residents and destroyed more than 2,960 houses.

Earthquake-report.com
56Rugged Pajero for jawans posted in Sikkim




The Indian Army brigade facing the Chinese in north Sikkim has an unusual vehicle in its inventory: Mitsubishi Pajeros! The vehicles were specially procured after observing similar vehicles used by Chinese military personnel on their side of the border.


The fact is northern Sikkim is no picnic. Over a distance of 60-70 km, the height rises from 15,000 feet to 19,000 feet. (The Chinese have it comparatively easier, they reach the same heights but rising gradually over 140 km). It puts considerable strain on army personnel not to mention vehicles and equipment. And given the poor state of roads there, the wear and tear is steep. Therefore the rugged Pajero.


It didn't come easily. Apart from the army's stringent procurement procedures, the mandarins in the Finance Ministry were reported to have had many objections. Nevertheless the proposal went through for an undisclosed number of Pajeros and they are doing yeoman service.


Oddly enough, the army appears less tense about the Chinese threat in Sikkim. The answer lies in the fact that units are sitting on the ridgelines and are able to spot any movement on the Chinese side. Then again the Chinese practice of stationing units 20 km from the border provides insurance against any surprise attack. Satellite cover is another insurance. The army also deploys artillery and tanks in depth to ensure adequate backup to the infantry. This is crucial given the problems involved in any air supply effort. There are no airfields in Sikkim, not because they're not required but engineers are yet to figure out how to get around the mountain ranges and lay a proper airfield. There are helipads but the logistics involved in moving tonnes of supplies or personnel at those heights tells heavily on equipment.


Border incidents appear to happen on a fairly regular basis, sometimes as often as every week. But these are rarely the "pushing shoving kind", or anything that degenerates into an armed confrontation. Army sources say that in the last 40 years no shot has been fired by either side. But the famous Finger Area is a bone of contention. The Chinese claiming the Indian border runs further south from its current position.


They are known to destroy stone cairns put up by the army to show where the Indian border begins. But many of these face offs are reportedly polite affairs, the Chinese anxious to make their point of view heard. Officers who have served in the area also say the Chinese tend to be very protocol conscious, the presence of a senior Indian army officer the occasion for an elaborate exchange of courtesies.


But there's no doubt the PLA is, as Defence Minister A K Antony puts it, "aggressively strengthening its capacities". So too is the Indian Army although comparatively our effort is slower, perhaps less focussed and always constrained by infrastructure and other hurdles.

source IBN Live

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

source:LiveMint

WEATHER WARNING

A weather warning valid for the next two days said that scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on Tuesday and isolated heavy thereafter
IAF chopper
Army wants VVIPs kept out of Sikkim

Josy Joseph, TNN | Sep 26, 2011, 03.56AM IST
source:Times of India

NEWDELHI: The Army has given an unusual suggestion to the government for improving the relief and rescue operations in earthquake devastated regions of Sikkim - keep VVIPs off the area.

A senior government source said the Army conveyed its suggestion to the defence ministry this weekend, after the Army and IAF were forced to divert significant number helicopters and personnel for visit of various VVIPs. Among those who have already visited the region are Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi and home minister P Chidambaram.

The suggestion could put an end to the plans of other Union ministers and senior political leaders to visit Gangtok and other areas of northern Sikkim where the damage has been the worst. The Army on its part is also believed to have decided not to plan a trip by the Army chief or other senior officers to avoid strain on the ongoing rescue operations.

Because of a host of factors, including the remoteness of villages, the rescue and relief operations are heavily dependent on the helicopter fleet of IAF and Army. Between the two forces, there is a fleet of Advance Light Helicopters, Cheetah/Chetak and Mi-17s in the region.

For Chungthang and beyond, the Army maintains ration of 55 days on normal times, as part of its preparedness for the border region. But since the earthquake, this ration is being distributed to local residents. Thus maintaining those ration stocks, reaching aviation fuel, diesel etc to the military formations that are beyond the road cut-off by earthquake are all dependent on helicopters.

An Army official said personnel of 33 Corps has reached almost all villages, but in many villages they found only rubble. It could be due to the residents migrating to nearest road-heads, or other villages, or there could be worse than assessed disaster buried in those villages, he admitted.

Over 90 people have been killed and a few hundred injured in the 6.8-magnitude earthquake that struck on September 18.
Over 80 per cent of buildings were damaged in the earthquake that struck Sikkim.
Sikkim: Chopper sorties with relief suspended

source;Zee news
Monday, September 26, 2011, 16:02
Gangtok: Helicopter sorties with relief to earthquake-affected areas which resumed Sunday after a two-day gap were again suspended due to incessant rain on Monday.

A senior Army official said that nine Army helicopters were engaged yesterday in the relief operation dropping ration and evacuating stranded people from different parts of North Sikkim.


He said that on the state’s request, the Army has released 3,000 litres of kerosene to Chungthang and 2,000 litres of kerosene to Lachung.

The Army has also opened seven relief camps at Chungthang where most people living in villages surrounding the sub-divisional town have arrived.


Prem Subba, who came down from Thangu, which is beyond Lachen, said most of the residents have abandoned their houses fearing they might crumble anytime after suffering structural damage in the earthquake.

Sonam, also from Thangu, said most people were sleeping in tents at the camps.

Meena Rai and her entire family of five are also residing in the relief camp opened at the Gurudwara having come down from a nearby village.

Chungthang has also experienced a large influx of labourers who are not just employed with the hydel project here, but also those from road and other construction projects further north.

They have been trekking down to Chungthang for the last couple of days and are awaiting helicopter evacuation.

Despite many labourers having been evacuated, there are still around 400 of them stranded there, still desperately trying to get a ride back home in one of the choppers.

There has been a mass exodus of labourers also from places above Chungthang, as far north as Dombang where a road construction company is engaged in the construction of a road from Dombang to Gora La.

Balwant Rai and Sushil Singh, both from Benaras, said that the military and labour camp up there had been totally destroyed.

However, 200-odd labourers survived and managed to escape and take a three-day trek down to Chungthang. In many ways the Ground Zero of the devastating earthquake, Chungthang is by far the worst affected town which has suffered a trail of devastation and destruction left by the earthquakes.

As many as 13 deaths have taken place there alone, many are missing and almost all houses and structures have been damaged.

With most structures rendered unsafe and residents still insecure about returning to even houses which have suffered only minor damage, most are still sleeping in the camps and open spaces, a week since the calamity.

The Chungthang SDM office has conducted a preliminary investigation of the damages in and around Chungthang though there has not been enough time for a detailed examination yet.

The preliminary report suggests that 90 houses in Chungthang have been totally damaged. The town has about 120 households. Of the 90 totally damaged houses, 25 are stated to be uninhabitable.

Though there is death and destruction everywhere, the sub-divisional office is functioning thanks to 12 sets of WLL phones and one satellite phone provided by the BSNL.
The Brightest NOVA Display


BDO Samdup Bhutia said, “our priority was to evacuate the injured and tourists followed by women and children and finally the elderly.”

A total of seven relief camps have been set up here by the administration which are managed with the help of local people.

A task force has also been set up comprising local panchayat members, district officials, officials from private companies, local people, the Army as well as other agencies aiding the relief and rehabilitation efforts.

PTI
Road to Sikkim
Sikkim earthquake

Landslides block Sikkim quake relief


Landslaide on the Manul Road in Sikkim Landslides have presented rescue workers in Sikkim with huge practical and logistical problems

Dogru Singh, a middle-aged explosives expert with the Indian army, has been much in demand in the northern Indian state of Sikkim over the last week.

After a quake last Sunday, which killed at least 100 people in the state, Sikkim has been hit by a spate of landslides and this has been exacerbated by relentless monsoon rain.
And this is where Mr Singh becomes important because his aptitude with explosives - from his work with the the Corps of Engineers and the Border Roads Organization (BRO) - is every bit as sharp as his finely-chiselled moustache.
There has been no shortage of work for him here in Sikkim.
As he watches a Caterpillar fail to remove boulders blocking a road, he nonchalantly hops on top of the nearest large rock with a coil of green wire in his hand.
He ties the wire around white explosive sticks, covers it with mud and within half-an-hour triggers three huge explosions.
As the boulders start rolling down the mountain, local boys run away, fearing more landslides. Mr Singh is phlegmatic and tells everyone to keep calm as he turns on the engine of his pick-up truck.
"I have been doing this for decades, but this is difficult because incessant rain is making large amounts of mud and boulders come loose," he said.
'Collapsed mountains'
The landslips are getting in the way of the army, civil administration and aid agencies who are working round the clock to rescue stranded villagers and provide relief.
Damaged church in Rangrang, Sikkim Buildings throughout Sikkim have been extensively damaged
On my way to the town of Tung from Mangan, the epicentre of the quake, I witnessed several landslides myself.
In many cases it appeared as if the mountain itself had slithered onto the road carrying giant boulders, and in some cases, the remnants of flimsy wooden houses amid the trees and mud.
One local resident, Gopal Acharya, reflects the views of many when he alleges that the landslides may as well have been "caused by the government".
"They approved multiple hydropower projects on the main river Teesta in Sikkim," he said.
"The power companies have dug huge tunnels inside the mountains to make water flow at a high speed to generate electricity."
Mr Acharya believes these tunnels had "weakened" the mountain.
"Mountains were blasted using explosives to generate electricity and these serial blasts cracked the mountains," he asserts.
And there are those who argue that Indian fears over Chinese incursions into Sikkim - Beijing only recognised the state to be part of India in 2003 - led to the construction of several roads for military vehicles which have further weakened the mountains.
"Very sharp cuts are made in the mountains to widen the existing roads and that may have resulted in landslides," said an employee of the state government's mines and geology department.
Road construction workers in a relief camp Many road workers had to walk for days before reaching a relief camp
However retired Sikkim Power Secretary Pema Wangchen Bhutia believes such theories are without foundation.
"These are low intensity blasts inside the mountains - there is no question of such blasts triggering cracks that shake the boulders loose," he said.
Sikkim's ex-director of mines and geology, T Tashi, has also conducted a survey of one hydropower site on the river Teesta and concluded that "the possibility of blast-driven landslides" cannot be ruled out.
There are dozens of big and small hydropower projects in Sikkim and several people's movements have been set up to resist such activity.
Local activists feel that the latest earthquake will lead to the formation of even more campaigns, making it difficult for the state government to approve more power projects and big dams.
Perilous journey
Chaitan Thukdar is a 25-year-old worker on just one such project, who is now nursing a broken toe in a relief camp after crawling, creeping and climbing through devastated terrain after the earthquake.
Site of a landslide in Sikkim In many cases large boulders can only be moved by explosives
There are several thousand men like Mr Thukdar who work as temporary workers in Sikkim's thriving energy and road building industry.
Many of them had to walk for at least four days from upper Sikkim to reach the safety of the camps.
"The locals feel that the roads we constructed caused the landslides and they have asked us to leave," said Mr Thukdar.
Walking from the remote area of Damang, close to the Indo-China border, he and his co-workers were confronted with a roadless country with little food or medical facilities.
They had to move boulders on roads, walk up and down mountain slopes and leave their more aged colleagues behind in order to reach the first accessible relief camp.
Mr Thukdar's fellow workers said that they relied heavily on the Indian army, who provided them with ropes to cross narrow ridges.
Road workers say that the entire area above Tung, stretching up to the Tibetan plateau, will take months to repair.
The Sikkim earthquake of 2011 is not something that will be quickly forgotten.

Monday, September 26, 2011



With US$ 1 trillion of infrastructure investments expected over the next five year plan (FY12-17), demand for steel in India is expected to see a spike. As today's chart of the day shows, steel demand is likely to jump by over 70% to 113 million tonnes (MT) by the end of the next Five-Year Plan. The Planning Commission has made this projection based on an expected GDP growth of 9%. The good news is that most of this demand is expected to be met by domestic steel producers. India's domestic steel producers are slated to add 40 MT of additional capacity during the 12th Plan.


Source: Business Standard
 
source; Shri J Mulraj
Quakes unlikely in Sikkim for next few years, says expert

Indo-Asian News Service
Kolkata, September 25, 2011


Sikkim is unlikely to face any large earthquake over the next couple of years as vast energy has been released through last Sunday's tremors and aftershocks, says SK Nath, senior professor of geology and geophysics, IIT-Kharagpur.
Although the recent quake left scores dead and devastated vast areas in north Sikkim, the leading geologist says the damage would have been worse had its full fury been felt in the state's more populous south, where no building code is followed.

"Though many people have died in Sikkim, I must say that Sikkim was lucky this time as the epicentre of the earthquake was the Sikkim-Nepal border," he said.

"That is why the northern part faced the wrath and south Sikkim did not face much problem," said Nath, who has been working extensively on the microzonation and seismicity of the Sikkim region since 1995.

"It was quite a large earthquake and it also released a few aftershocks," said Nath. "So I can say that for at least the next couple of years there will be no such earthquake in Sikkim."

He rubbished reports of Mangan in the north district being the epicentre of the earthquake.

"I do not know from where reports are coming that Mangan is the epicentre. It is in the middle of Sikkim. Had Mangan been the epicentre, the whole of Bhutan and North Bengal up to Siliguri would have been in ruins," Nath told IANS in an interview.

Nath, who has been teaching in IIT-Kharagpur since 1988, said the main reason for earthquakes in India is the Indian plate going under the Eurasian plate.

"The Indian plate is still going under the Eurasian plate. It is going under at a rate 46 millimetres per year," said Nath.

Nath, the principal investigator on the project of Department of Earth Sciences Microzonation of Sikkim Region, submitted a report in 2006 regarding what kind of quake-proof buildings should come up in the hill state.

According to Nath, Sikkim is divided into two seismic zones: North Sikkim falls under seismic zone 4 and South Sikkim, which includes areas of Gangtok and Singtham, falls under seismic zone 5.

Seismic Microzonation is a process by which an area is divided into zones -- in accordance with the character of the area such as ground shaking, susceptibility, rock fall hazard and earthquake-related flooding.

"If you go to south Sikkim, which falls in Zone 5, it has a lot of two lean buildings side by side, with very little gap between them. No building code is followed there," said Nath, who received the Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize in 2002.

"It is true that Sikkim's mainstay is tourism and Gangtok its main attraction. But there should be a proper procedure for construction of buildings," said Nath.
When the earth pushed west
alt





25 September 2011

The Sikkim earthquake has thrown both a challenge and an opportunity. UTPAL KUMAR, however, is not too sure if we will go for the right option

It was one calamitous September morning that changed Japan forever. On September 1, 1923, a massive earthquake shook that country’s Kanto Plain, killing at least 100,000 people and reducing the entire region to rubble. The devastation was so absolute, and the loss so mind-boggling, that Japan, for a moment, considered shifting its capital out of Tokyo. Thankfully, better sense prevailed and the people decided to fight it out — first by replacing fire-prone, wood and brick buildings with concrete and steel towers. And, then, by regularly updating their building guidelines and advancing research on earthquake safety and disaster management. Ninety years on, Japan continues to tremble, but it rarely witnesses a trail of death and destruction on the scale it encountered on that fateful September morning. Even in March this year, when the country was hit by an 8.9 magnitude earthquake, people suffered not because of tremors but due to accompanying tsunami that hit the Japanese shores with a vengeance.

India, too, encountered its ‘September moment’ last Sunday — in Sikkim and its suburbs. In magnitude and scale of destruction, this might not be a landmark earthquake, but it has done something that is likely to challenge the authorities to re-assess the country’s hazard zones.

So far, it has been known that India’s landmass is inching slowly up, moving in the north and north-easterly direction. The interaction of this moving landmass with the Eurasian tectonic plate — one getting below the other — in the Himalayas is what causes most of the tremors in the region. The September 18 earthquake, however, was not the result of a forward pushing of the Indian plate; it was caused by lateral movements.

“The initial analysis of the Sikkim earthquake suggests that it wasn’t caused by one plate thrusting beneath another, but by so-called ‘strike-slip faulting’, a mechanism where fault systems slide side-to-side when two tectonic plates butt heads. Geologists suspect that the earthquake was due to an intra-plate fault within the upper Eurasian plate or the underlying Indian plate, rather than the interface between the two plates,” says Prof RB Singh of the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics.

HR Wason, Head of the Department of Earthquake Engineering at IIT Roorkee, is surprised to see the lateral movement in the region. “Such movements are not known to happen in the Himalayas,” says he. Prof Paul Segall of Stanford University, however, believes there’s nothing new in all this. “It is not atypical to have diverse types of fault movement even in an area dominated by convergence of two plates,” he says. Roger G Bilham of Colorado University takes Segall’s argument forward, when he says: “The slip in this earthquake is an indication of ‘differential’ northward motion of the Indian plate and possibly the subsequent adjustment of the Tibetan Plateau above it.”

But, do all these make the region more vulnerable to earthquakes?

“Intra-plate earthquakes do not occur near plate boundaries, but at the location of ancient failed rifts, because such old structures may present a weakness in the crust where it can easily slip to accommodate regional tectonic strain. The earthquake caused by sideways movement of plates, therefore, is generally located in the stable interior parts of continents which are believed to be less vulnerable to hazards,” says Singh.

The recent event of intra-plate earthquake in Sikkim has, thus, pushed the hazard line to further south of the Himalayas. “I believe the Sikkim quake should serve as a reminder that more parts of the region than actually thought of are prone to earthquakes and planning should account for this risk,” says Segall.

Currently, as far as earthquakes are concerned, the country has been divided into five zones. The Northeast, Jammu & Kashmir, and a significant portion of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand come under Zone V, which is the most volatile of the earth’s seismic centres. Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and a part of Uttarakhand fall in Zone IV. Central India is bracketed under Zone III; and, south India comes under Zone II. Now, after the Sikkim tremor, the entire zone system has to be reorganised, and the threat perception recast.
source; The daily pioneer
Heightened seismic activity

There are seismologists who believe that the earth has experienced a noticeable increase in seismic activity and intensity over the past few years. According to latest statistics from the United States Geological Survey, between 1986 and 1996, there were 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater. In the next 10 years, the frequency increased by more than six times. Even the rate of lesser magnitude earthquakes has increased. Around 120 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0-6.9 take place every year. And, in the last week alone, we have had six. At this rate, we would end up having almost three-times more earthquakes this year!

“I don’t think anyone can explain why the activity has increased,” says Segall. Several theories have been put forth to explain what is happening. Though most of them are no better than conspiracy theories, a few seem credible. One of the theories has to do with a meteor that has returned to the earth’s proximity and may be affecting its gravity balance. Another theory points to solar flares reaching the earth’s surface, thus affecting its electro-magnetic fields. And, of course, there are some who believe that the earth’s rotational axis has shifted, causing changes in climate, waves and gravity; this, according to them, has resulted in hurricanes, earthquakes and tornadoes.

Bilham, though not certain about the reasons behind heightened seismic activity in recent times, says there is nothing strange in all this. “It is not unusual for earthquakes to appear more frequently. They occur rather randomly and hence some periods of time will seem to contain more than others,” he says.

RK Chadha, Chief Scientist, CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, agrees with Bilham. “The last 100 years of global data show that during the 1940-50 decade the earth was seismically more active. Since 2000, we have been again witnessing a seismically active period, more so after the 9.1 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra (2004). ‘Why’, is the million dollar question at the moment and is the area of active research globally,” he says.

Prepare for the worst

At least 38 Indian cities, including Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Ahmedabad, fall within moderate-to-high risk seismic zones. And, if reports are to be believed, India must prepare itself for earthquakes of Japan-like frequency and intensity, if not more. “The northern part of the subcontinent has long been awaiting an earthquake of magnitude 9,” says an Indian Meteorological Department official on the condition of anonymity. Jean-Philippe Avouac, a geophysicist at the California Institute of Technology, too, believes that an earthquake of high magnitude — like the one witnessed in Japan — is overdue. “The Himalayan region has a lot of energy that needs to be released at some point,” he says.

Earthquakes in the Himalayas can go beyond magnitude eight. “There have been four earthquakes over magnitude eight — 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal border and 1950 Arunachal Pradesh. So, the occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake cannot be ruled out,” says Chadha.

Such large earthquakes can occur either on thrust faults or strike-slip. So, the implications of earthquake hazard in the Himalayan region will not change. But, as the Sikkim quake has revealed, a large number of cities located in the vicinity of the Himalayas are no less vulnerable. “Earthquake hazards depend on the local site conditions in which you are located. It will increase in the presence of thick pile of sediments where seismic waves are amplified, causing more damage. This can happen even up to the distance of 300-400 km. Hence, several cities in the Indo-Gangetic plains where the thickness of sediments varies between 500 metres and 6,000 metres are exposed to earthquakes. The 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat is a perfect example as the tremors led to the collapse of buildings in Ahmedabad, located more than 300 km from the epicentre; in 1985, Mexico City suffered heavy damage due to an earthquake whose epicentre was along the coast in the Pacific Ocean, located more than 300 km away from the Mexican capital,” says Prof Chadha.

Quakes not real killers

“In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction,” remarked a leading seismologist after the devastating earthquake hit the Caribbean island of Haiti in January 2010, killing more than 300,000 people. Poor quality construction on the island made the quake lethal. The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Chile a month later was 500-times stronger than the Haiti one. And, yet, the number of casualties in Chile was exponentially smaller, with the official death toll being confined to a few hundreds.

India is no different from Haiti. The Sikkim earthquake should, therefore, be a wake-up call for all concerned — the Government, policymakers and law enforcers. An earthquake on the scale that Japan or Chile experienced would lay waste whole cities here. But before the authorities can do anything, they need to understand that quakes do not kill people, buildings do. Safety essentially lies in ensuring quake-resistant construction of buildings. This is where our real worry lies, as illegal and poor quality constructions continue to be the bane of urban India, coupled with a lack of awareness of safety norms.

Bilham believes India is not being pro-active enough in dealing with earthquake hazards. “Building codes exist and need to be implemented, not avoided by corrupt or ignorant contractors,” the Colorado University professor says.

“Large earthquakes today will have greater impact because of haphazard way of urbanisation taking place in the country and also the density of population in large cities. Mushrooming of multi-storied buildings, especially in the hilly regions of the Himalayas, is equally worrisome,” says Chadha.

Traditional houses of wood and stone survived the Uttarkashi earthquake in 1991. One cannot prevent earthquakes from happening, but one can definitely construct a building that doesn’t pose danger when disasters strike. Perhaps the damage in the Sikkim quake could have been minimal, had authorities learnt lessons from Uttarkashi and discouraged the construction of ‘modern’ buildings in the mountains.

Also, the Government should understand that the seismic process in Sikkim and its suburbs has been complicated by the presence of multiple dams on the Teesta river and its tributaries. Though the role of the dams in the recent tremor is yet to be studied, the earthquake could have a Teesta angle. After all, in 1970, a major earthquake in Maharashtra was triggered by the Koyna dam located on the Sahyadri Hills. The Government needs to tread carefully on the issue as its “master vision” identifies the Northeast as the country’s “future powerhouse” by building about 168 dams in the region.

So, last Sunday a choice was given to us: To choose the Japanese way of tackling earthquakes, or go down the Haitian way. The choice is ours. The Sikkim quake has only emphasised that the threat is greater than what we actually believed.