South Asian Economic Union

Kuldip Nayar backs South Asian Economic Union

Mohammed Iqbal

“There will be soft borders and free movement of people”

Veteran journalist and former diplomat Kuldip Nayar on Tuesday backed the emerging idea for the formation of a South Asian Economic Union with “soft borders” among the nations and free movement of people, which he said would promote understanding and cooperation and unite the people across the boundaries.

“Borders should act [just] as corridors in the new system,” said Mr. Nayar – a strong votary of peace between India and Pakistan – at a session on “Between the lines, beyond the headlines” on the last day of the Jaipur Literature Festival here. He was in conversation with New Delhi-based British journalist John Elliott.

The octogenarian columnist, who has authored 14 books and has had a long career as a political commentator, said the economic union in the Indian subcontinent would be a reality within the next 30 years: “It would not be in my lifetime, but the next generation will certainly witness a new era of peace and harmony in this region.”

Mr. Nayar ruled out war as an option between India and Pakistan or India and China, but said while a robust friendship was possible with Pakistan in view of a common past, the scope for friendly Sino-Indian ties was limited because of conflicting interests of the two countries.

“We are two giants and we stand for different values. Our relations can just be normal, but camaraderie is not possible,” he said, recalling the “betrayal” by China starting from building a road in Aksai Chin and culminating in the military attack on India without any provocation in 1962. The Chinese attack shattered Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru as he earlier thought that a Communist nation would not harm a developing country.

A former Indian High Commissioner to Britain, Mr. Nayar touched the subjects of Partition, his migration from Sialkot – where he was born – to Delhi, Emergency, violence in Jammu and Kashmir, corruption and contemporary political trends in his hour-long conversation at Mughal Tent at the JLF venue, Diggi Palace.

Mr. Nayar said his autobiography, One Lifetime Is Not Enough, scheduled for release later this year, would give details of his eventful time as Lal Bahadur Shastri's media adviser and a brief stint as a press officer with Nehru, besides the events in the history of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The memoir will be published in 12 languages.

The noted columnist-activist, who was jailed during the 1975-77 Emergency, said the Emergency was a watershed period in India's history as it changed all norms for governance. “Mahatma Gandhi, Nehru and Shastri were old guard who espoused the ethos adopted during our freedom struggle,” he said, adding that everything changed during the “despotic rule” of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Nevertheless, Mr. Nayar said he had a great optimism for the future of the nation. “India will never fall apart. We do not face any challenge of disintegration,” he said while noting the Indian people had always depicted unparalleled concord and risen up with unity in the times of crises. “Our differences disappeared when Gandhiji was assassinated. We have remained united during external aggressions.”

Mr. Nayar felt that the civil society in modern India should stand up and speak out against corruption rampant in the system and criminalisation of politics. “Anna Hazare is only a symbol. We should have more people like him,” he said, while observing that the Lokpal Bill drafted by the Union government was “too diluted and weak.”

Asked about the ideals before the present generation of journalists, Mr. Nayar said the scribes should not only be independent but should also be “anti-establishment.”

“My generation of journalists never bothered about the business side of newspapers which we worked for. As news carriers, journalists should be ready to take on the establishment.”

UIDAI

The Unique Identification Authority' of India (UIDAI) was established in 2009 and has been mandated to issue Unique Identification (UTD) numbers to the residents of India. It may be recalled that UIDAI was constituted by the Government of India in January, 2009 as an attached office of the Planning Commission. Prime Minister's Council of UID Authority was constituted on 30th July, 2009 and its first meeting was held on 12th August, 2009. Subsequently, the Government constituted a Cabinet Committee on Unique Identification Authority' of India related issues (CC-UIDAI) in October, 2009 to look into all issues relating to UIDAI including its organization, plans, policies, programmes, schemes, funding and methodology to be adopted for achieving the objectives of the Authority. Consequent upon the creation and establishment of the Unique Identification Authority of India in 2009 for providing unique identification to the residents across the country, an estimated 17 crore enrolments have been completed by the various Registrars of UIDAI and as on 20.1.2012, 11.90 crore Aadhaar numbers generated.

Data source: The Economist

Sikkim's tableau on display. Photo: PTI

Artists perform a folk dance during Republic Day function in Guwahati. Photo: PTI

A Maratha Regiment personnel performs malkamb at Manekshaw Parade Grounds, in Bangalore. Photo: V Sreenivasa Murthy

India; Brave sons & daughters

"While removing bad fruit, don't bring down the tree" -President of India

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY 2012

Address by the President of India, Shrimati Pratibha Devisingh Patil to the Nation

Address by the President of India, Shrimati Pratibha Devisingh Patil to the Nation on the eve of Republic Day


The President, Smt. Pratibha Devisingh Patil, addressed the Nation on the eve of the 63rd Republic Day. Following is the text of the President’s address on the occasion:

Dear Citizens,

On the eve of our 63rd Republic Day, I convey my warmest greetings to all of you across the country, from every walk of life and in different parts of the world. I convey my special greetings to the Armed Forces and the Para-Military Forces who guard our frontiers with great vigil and valour, in high mountainous terrains, deserts and the plains, on the coasts and the seas. I also convey my best wishes to our internal security forces and to our civil services. I compliment all citizens for their contribution to the process of nation-building.

We are living in a world that is complex and challenging. Forces of globalization have created an interlinked and interdependent world. No country exists in isolation; it is continuously being influenced by external developments. All nations, developed and developing, are facing the impact of global economic instability, as well as problems of unemployment and inflation, in varying degrees. Indeed, the 21st Century has brought in its trail a host of issues at a breath-taking pace. There are growing aspirations of the people, coupled with their expectations of immediate solutions. We are observing, an information explosion and ever-newer technological inventions. These have altered lifestyles and there is also a growing quest for materialism. There are persistent questions about how growth and resources will be shared in a more equitable manner. There are worries about the direction in which the human community is heading in this age of globalization, knowledge and technology.

For us in India, the discourse is about how an ancient civilization and a young nation, will move ahead to take India to its destiny. Our vision and our goals are clear. We look at building our country, as one whose economy demonstrates a robustness to grow, so that we can become a developed nation. For us, however, economic prosperity alone is not enough. We look towards an India, where there is equity and justice. We look at democracy, rule of law and human values, as being essential for making our country strong. We want a scientific and technological outlook in our people. We also look towards India as a country which will continue to bring moral force on to the global stage. I believe that there is a unity behind this vision of India. But, yet, sometimes one gets distracted by discordant pulls and pressures. How should we proceed to build our nation and its people? I believe that the answer lies in our age old values; the ideals of our freedom movement; the principles of our Constitution, as also in our unity, a positive attitude and our aspiration to grow.

It is often said, but not fully realized, that we are very fortunate to have a rich legacy of values, traditions and teachings. The ageless spirit of India, the eternal voice of India, has been resonating through millennia. What are those intrinsic qualities which have seen India prosper through centuries and eras? What is the message that should light our path, as we chart our future course? Our civilizational ethos contains the lessons of duty and truth. It tells us to be humane in all our thoughts and deeds. It highlights the qualities of compassion, care and of respect for others. It teaches that human beings and nature must exist in harmony with each other. All issues should be viewed in the context of humanity as a whole. Concepts, like ‘समन्वय’, ‘सर्वे भवन्तु सुखिनः’ ‘वसुधैव कुटुम्बकम’, are the very essence of Indian thought. This philosophy has given succeeding generations the inherent strength to grow, embracing in their fold a vast diversity of cultures, languages, religions and communities. So, when the question is asked, as to what ideals should be placed before the new generation, to take the country forward, should then there be any dithering or doubt in a country like India? As the inheritors of thousands of years of history and culture, we should follow the high ideals of our age-old civilization. More particularly, the youth should understand this, as they are the architects of the future as well. Our past becomes the essential guide for the future as well. In this context, I recall the lines of Gurudev Tagore, “Every great people holds its history so valuable because… it contains not mere memories, but hope, and therefore the image of the future.” The past of India has been glorious and so must be its future.

We can also draw inspiration from our independence movement. It was a unique struggle, as it involved non-violent methods and required extraordinary mass discipline, steadfastness and patience. We followed this course, under the leadership of Gandhiji, because we had faith in ourselves and in our strength. Surely, we can demonstrate the same discipline in nation building. But, how do we do this? It is, only when we resolve to make the goal of nation building more important, than anything else and, show strong belief in it. It is then that courage, confidence and determination, shall be our companions in this task, which has to be carefully piloted in a constitutionally acceptable order.

In fact, during various times of difficulties or when searching for an answer, the Constitution has provided us our moorings. It was framed by those who had participated in the freedom struggle, and had a deep understanding of the aspirations of the people, and of our culture. The Constitution has been and should be our compass, guiding us in nation-building. It is the charter of our democracy. It is the document guaranteeing individual freedoms to its citizens. It is the basis on which institutions of the State have been created and have derived their powers and functions. Our Constitution is a living and dynamic instrument, which has demonstrated its ability to be flexible enough to meet the demands of changing times, while retaining its basic features. Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar in his closing speech at the Constituent Assembly said, “The first thing in my judgment we must do is to hold fast to constitutional methods of achieving our social and economic objectives.” Unquote.

Dear Citizens,

There is tremendous work to be done to move forward on our social and economic agenda, if we are to achieve fast, inclusive and sustainable growth. Our foremost priority is the removal of poverty, hunger and malnutrition, disease and illiteracy. All social welfare programmes must be implemented efficiently. Agencies involved in the delivery of services should have a strong sense of duty and work in a transparent, corruption-free, time-bound and accountable manner.

We have a population which is predominantly young. With education and training, they can become skilled and, thus, capable of finding their livelihoods, starting their own businesses and thus, becoming productive assets. Reinforcing our health and education sectors is fundamental for developing our human resources. Primary education is now a fundamental right for children. There is a commitment to universalize secondary education. Expansion of school education will also require increase in the number of higher education institutions. This process has to be structured with great thoughtfulness, to ensure quality and excellence. Moreover, education must reach every section of our society, as must access to health reach all. We need to expand health services, particularly in rural areas. We need quality medical facilities for our population, which are affordable. In today`s era of ICT, technology can be very useful in our mission of health and education. In fact, science and technology is a critical input for the growth of the nation and for all sectors of the economy. Focus on research and development is an investment in our future. Our agriculture, industry and service sectors need to be working more efficiently, with greater scientific inputs and more inter-linkages with each other. Agriculture, however, is one sector whose integration with other sectors of the economy remains inadequate. We need to look at models of partnership, of farmers with industry and with R&D institutions in various activities, so that, not only does agricultural productivity increase, but farmers benefit as well. Special focus is necessary on dryland farming, given its enormous potential and, the fact that, a large proportion of farm labour and poor farmers are dependent on it. At the same time, it is very important to build our physical infrastructure – such as roads, ports and airports, to overcome constraints to rapid growth.

I strongly believe that women need to be drawn fully into the national mainstream. Empowerment of women will have a very big impact on creating social structures that are stable. The National Mission on Empowerment of Women set up in 2010, should help in the co-coordinated delivery of women-centric and women-related programmes. An important component of women’s development is their economic and social security. Social prejudices prevalent in our society which have led to gender discrimination need to be corrected. Social evils like female foeticide, child marriage and dowry must be eradicated. Status of women is an important indicator of progress in a society.

Dear Citizens,

India can take pride in its democratic record, but as in any functional democracy, it faces pressures and challenges. An important feature of a democracy is the constant expression of opinions. This process of incessant dialogue should flow in such a manner, that we are willing to listen to each other. Those who believe in democracy must try to see whether there is rationale in the others’ point of view. Gandhiji once said, “Evolution of democracy is not possible if we are not prepared to hear the other side. We shut the doors of reason when we refuse to listen.” The purpose of discussions and deliberations is to find solutions. Often, we are quick to find blame with others; but, yet are unable to give constructive responses. There seems to be a tendency to doubt almost everything. Do we not have faith in our own people’s strengths and in our institutions? Can we afford distrust amongst ourselves? Nations are built through great patience and sacrifices. Concord and not discord is the way forward for a country as large as India. All issues, therefore, must be resolved through dialogue and there can be no place for violence. Negativity and rejection cannot be the path for a vibrant country that is moving to seek its destiny. Our work, our values and our approach, must be based on the vast capability and capacity that India and its people have.

Our institutions may not be flawless, but they have coped with many challenges. Our Parliament has enacted path-breaking laws. Our Government has put together schemes for the progress and welfare of the people. Our judiciary has a reputable standing. Our media too has played an important role. With all institutions working together for the same national purpose it will create a stream of positive energy. Our effort to improve is an on-going process. While bringing about reforms and improving institutions, we have to be cautious that while shaking the tree to remove the bad fruit, we do not bring down the tree itself. There will be short term pressures, but in this process we must not lose sight of the long term goals, and must work together on our core national agenda. I do hope in the spirit of national interest, matters of national importance, are discussed and solutions are found between different stakeholders. This will strengthen the roots of our democracy and the foundations of our nation. We have a shared future, and we should not forget that it can be achieved if we demonstrate a sense of responsibility and a show of unity. I think India could set an example before the democratic world of progress and growth.

Dear Citizens,

India’s foreign policy is aimed at the promotion of an environment that is conducive to its socio-economic transformation. We seek to build bridges of cooperation and friendship with all countries of the world. We constructively engage with the international community to find responses to global challenges. The role and stature of India, has been growing and our nation has been scaling up in the ladder of the comity of nations. India seeks an architecture for global institutions that is more reflective of contemporary realities. We are also proud of the contributions of the Indian Diaspora, spread over many countries and across continents, to the economic, professional and political fields of the countries where they live.

Dear Citizens,

In conclusion, I would like to say that we must build a strong, prosperous nation, based upon a firm system of values. As we remove poverty, let us also enrich our thoughts. As we remove disease, let us all remove ill-will towards others. As our youth study more and acquire more knowledge, let them also learn to be more involved in activities for the progress of the nation, other than only self advancement. As we legislate, let us also understand that the most effective law is the conscience of citizens. As we advance in science and technology, let us realize and understand that it is more for human welfare. As we use the Earth’s resources, let us not forget to replenish and renew its vitality. On the eve of our Republic Day, let me once again convey my greetings, to all fellow citizens and end with the following lines which describe an India we should work for:

बहें जहां सदभाव की नदियां।
उगें जहां नैतिकता की फ़सलें।
सब मन एकता का गीत सुनाएं।
पग-पग देश का विकास बढ़ाएं।
मिलकर ऐसा देश बनाएं।

JAI HIND!
******

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY 2012

"If you are happy with a reason, that reason may be taken away from you, and you'll lose your joy. If you are happy without reason, nobody can take your happiness away." HH Dalai Lama

New National Permit Scheme of Goods Carriages

A new National Permit System has been implemented in all States and Union Territories in order to facilitate inter-State seamless movement of goods carriages,. As per the new arrangement, national permit can be granted by the Home State on payment of Rs 1,000/- as home State authorization fee and Rs 15,000/- per annum per truck towards consolidated fee authorizing the permit holder to operate throughout the country. The new national permit system has also been implemented electronically through a web portal developed by NIC.

Under the new National Permit Scheme, the consolidated fee collected by the Central Government through State Bank of India is distributed among the States / UTs on a pro-rata basis as per agreed formula.

The new National Permit System is being implemented successfully by all States / UTs and has been welcomed by the transporters and States as a significant step towards improvement in road transport system in the country.

At Jaipur Literature Festival now running.

Guidance Plus: The Northeast and a scientific bellwether

by B.S. Warrier

Source: The Hindu

  

FRUITS OF RESEARCH: A view of the Brahmaputra in Assam. The North-East Institute of Science and Technology in Jorhat in Assam strives to find innovative uses for the rich resources of the land fed by this perennial river. Photo: Ritu Raj Konwar

 

 

The Northeast has an abundance of natural resources. The North-East Institute of Science and Technology in Assam conducts research on these resources to develop products and processes useful in lending a helping hand to the common man in the region.

Among the various regions of the country, Northeast India has several unique features. By the Northeast, we mean the area covered by the States of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura. It has China on the north, Bangladesh on the southeast, Bhutan on the northeast, and Myanmar on the east. Nearly 90 per cent of its borders form our international boundaries, signifying its strategic importance.

The region is mostly hilly. It abounds in a variety of flora and fauna. Nearly half its area is covered by forests. It is rich in forest resources, including valuable trees such as sal, teak, bansom, simul, bamboo, and cane, apart from a variety of aromatic and medicinal plants. The region has many timber-based industries. It produces a major share of tea in the country.

Nature has been generous to the region. It is endowed with rich deposits of minerals, petroleum, and natural gas. There are coal deposits as well. It has a perennial water system from the Brahmaputra and its tributaries. However, the region is not in the forefront of Indian States when we grade them on the basis of development indicators. The economy of the region is not industrial, but predominantly agrarian of a traditional style with low productivity. Northeast India has great potential for development in sectors such as energy, petroleum, natural gas, agro-industries, food processing, floriculture, and paper manufacture. The high literacy of the region is congenial to introducing a development-oriented, industry-friendly atmosphere, drawing from the results of scientific research.

An institution that conducts a great deal of scientific research and systematic studies with a focus on the development of the Northeast in particular is the North-East Institute of Science and Technology (NEIST), Jorhat, Assam – 785 006; Website: www.rrljorhat.res.in.

NEIST, formerly a Regional Research Laboratory, was established in 1961. It is one of the multidisciplinary laboratories of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, under its Chemical Science Group. The emphasis of investigations in the institute is the development of indigenous technologies by utilising the rich natural resources of our country. The institute is committed to goal-oriented research for the development of know-how for a wide range of industries and extension works. The institute has generated more than a hundred technologies in the areas of agro-technology, biological, and oil-field chemicals. Many of these proved to be commercial successes. They led to the setting up of new industries in many parts of the country. Further, expertise has been developed in the following:

# Natural products chemistry

# Drug and drug intermediates

# VSK (vertical shaft kiln) cement

# Plant technology

# Agro-technologies

# Petroleum microbiology and petrochemicals

# Crude oil transportation

# Paper and paper products

# Beneficiation chemicals

# Ecology and environmental studies

# Geotechnical investigations

# Foundation design engineering

# Soil and building materials

The extent of scientific and technological innovations may be quickly appreciated from the fact that the annual turnover of the products produced with NEIST technologies within the country is Rs.110 crore.

Notable achievements

Let us look at some of the significant achievements of NEIST.

Development of know-how for “Arteether,” a potent new-generation anti-malarial drug active against chloroquin-resistant malaria strains.

Development of vertical shaft kiln (VSK) for mini cement plants. Technology for a 30,000-tonne-per-annum plant has also been developed to cater to national and international needs.

Development of a series of pour-point depressants for transportation of highly waxy crude oils.

Development of agro-technologies for important medicinal and aromatic plants.

Contribution to extensive cultivation of citronella grass and extraction of oil, leading to the establishment of a major citronella based agro-industry in the region. This has generated employment for nearly 22,000 people in the rural sector.

Development and introduction of agro-technologies for mushroom cultivation and popularisation of several protein-rich edible mushroom varieties.

Process development for several special pesticides.

Process development for speciality papers and boards including thermographic paper, carbon-less copy paper, direct copy paper, carbon paper, gummed paper tape, and ceiling boards.

Development of a new process for utilisation of banana plants for production of fibres useful for making twines and fabrics in the conventional jute-processing machines, and also for making eco-friendly products such as carpets, doormats, bags, flower vase, table mats, purse, flower basket, wall-hangings, and shopping bags

Multiplication of certain medicinal perfumery and endangered plant species by tissue culture.

Establishment of the North-East Ecology Park, to act as a gene-cum- research park for plant breeders and biotechnologists.

Establishment of a network of digital 3D seismic stations along with a central recording observatory equipped with remote dial-up facility for online data transmission and processing.

Further, many other technologies and processes developed by the institute are available for transfer to industries. Some of these are new agro-technologies, building materials, low-cost cement based on rice husk as fuel, ceiling boards from agro-waste, ferro-cement elements for roofing and storage tank, drug and drug intermediates, caffeine from tea waste, beneficiation additives for ores and minerals, flow improvers for crude transportation, boards and other coated papers, domestic edible oil expeller, medium density fibre (MDF) boards, paraffin wax from Fuller's earth, regeneration of lubricating oils, chlorinated paraffin wax, and designs from solid-waste disposal.

This list reveals that the institute has a special emphasis on research leading to products and processes that are most useful in lending a helping hand to the common man in the region, thereby lightening the burden of his life and raising his standard of living. This approach may be slightly different from that found in many of our big laboratories engaged in high-tech research. Students who love this ambience congenial to social commitment will have a rewarding experience in the institute.

Nepal to share ginger trading story

HIMALAYAN NEWS SERVICE


KATHMANDU: Nepal has selected three products — ginger, chyangra pashmina and tea — to showcase under WTO/Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) Trading Stories project.

“We are going to submit a proposal of ginger under Tier 2 project in a week,” project and policy analyst at the Nectrade Dhiraj Karki, said, adding that EIF has selected three products and one service for the Tier 2 project.

“Among the four projects, ginger is in a submission stage and it will start from March,” Karki said, adding that they are preparing the proposal of chyangra pashmina, which will be completed by February end. “Meanwhile we are in an initial stage of Tea.”

The proposed Tier 2 ginger project ‘Enhancing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Capacity of Nepalese Ginger Exports through public private partnership’ under consideration, focuses on developing the ginger value chain, identified as a high-potential sector for export, value addition, employment and income generation by the government and development partners.

“The main objective of the project is implementation of Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) and publicise products and services of the country in the international level,” Karki said, “In April, a mission will go through the proposals and will do profiling of the country.”

The mission’s visit is scheduled both for Kathmandu and proposed project site in the eastern region of Nepal.

Another Tier 2 project under preparation ‘Pashmina Enhancement and Trade Support (PETS) project’, aims at responding to the trade related development priorities in the NTIS as well as to build sustainable local capacities and leverage additional resources from development partners pursuant to the goal.

The project will contribute to achieve improved and increased export performance at least by 20 per cent, National chyangra pashmina sourcing and supply chain strengthen.

Meanwhile, Tea project is being planned in participation with Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and Ministry of Commerce and Supplies, Nepal Tea and Coffee Development Board, Trade and Export Promotion Centre, and Donor partners.

Nepal tea is identified as an area of comparative advantage that has potential for growth based on expansion of exports.

EIF Nepal/Nectrade will plan to start work on the detailed project proposal for tea with clear and defined aims.

Meanwhile, overall goal of Tier 1 project, National Implementation Unit, is to ultimately ensure faster growth of the country, alleviate poverty through creation of jobs and enhanced sustainability of trade and development efforts resulting in greater overall benefit of the country through enhanced global integration and trade development.

Deleting data won’t save income tax evaders

Ankur JainAnkur Jain, TNN | Jan 23, 2012, 12.49AM IST


AHMEDABAD: Gone are the days when during an income-tax (I-T) raid one could delete emails or records of clandestine transactions from a laptop or incriminating smses from cellphones and feel safe. The I-T department sleuths in the city will soon be armed with gadgets that can recover deleted data from tax evaders' electronic devices.

The income tax department will soon have its own cyber forensics laboratory with data mining facilities which will allow deleted files and emails from assesses' computer and cellphone to be recovered.

The department has such facilities in Delhi and Mumbai that have helped officials retrieve information about hundreds of crores of transactions which were deleted by the tax evader over a period or hours before the raid.

"We have sent a proposal for budget approval to Central Board Of Direct Taxes (CBDT) for setting up a cyber forensics and training laboratory at Ahmedabad. We have requested Rs 2 crore for the laboratory which will not only help officials investigate tax evasion cases but also help in training of new officer," said director income-tax, Regional Training Institute (RTI) Abhay Damle. He added that the laboratory will be useful to officials in the entire state for post-search investigations.

Sources said that with finance minister's indication about setting up such laboratories in different cities, CBDT will most likely allocate budget for setting up the facility before March this year.

"Cyber tools have come handy to the I-T department's investigation wing which gathers intelligence and conducts searches to unearth black money. Once the laboratory is setup, officers during search will be able 'clone' data on assesses' computers including the deleted materials during a search," said a senior I-T official.

ECONOMY: Silver Linings in 2012

Silver Linings in 2012

By Sanjay Kumar Singh | Jan 20, 2012


As 2011 draws to a close, the economic outlook appears gloomy. Growth is slowing down: with luck the economy may clock a growth rate of 7 per cent in FY12, quite a comedown from the 8.5 per cent rate notched up in FY11. Manufacturing has been badly hit, as the lIP (index of industrial production) figure of -5.1 per cent for October brought home starkly. Private investment has been on the decline ever since the 2008 crisis. Now private consumption too is faltering, owing to high inflation (that reduces purchasing power), high interest rates, and a weak job market in urban areas. Government spending, the mainstay of GDP growth since the credit crisis, is also bound to decline in future, since the government’s revenues have taken a knocking amid slowing growth. Moreover, it will perforce have to curtail spending in order to rein in its fiscal deficit. Against such a backdrop, to get dispirited about the economy’s prospects would be natural. However, a closer look reveals a few silver linings.

High inflation has been the economy’s biggest bugbear for the last two years (last 21-month WPI average: 9.7 per cent). But December onwards inflation is expected to begin softening. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects it to abate to 7 per cent by March 2012, while economists at Goldman Sachs expect it to average 5 per cent in FY13. Several factors will contribute to this softening: the high base of 2011; softening of commodity prices due to weak global growth; lower food inflation due to a good monsoon in 2011, and lower inflation in protein-based foods due to a cyclical improvement in supply.

If inflation softens, can interest-rate cuts be far behind? With growth decelerating rapidly, the central bank will be forced to reverse its policy stance. Rate cuts could commence as early as January or latest by the middle of 2012. How early rate cuts begin, and how aggressively they are undertaken will determine how quickly the Indian economy shakes off its growth blues. Falling interest rates will provide a fillip both to private consumption and private investment (though in case of the latter, policy initiatives and improvement in economic outlook will also be called for). Even equity markets could rally in anticipation of a reversal in the interest-rate cycle.

The Indian rupee has depreciated sharply in recent months owing to India’s current account deficit, capital outflows, and lack of fresh inflows. While the rupee’s depreciation will make imports more expensive, it will also enhance India’s export competitiveness, which the country will be able to capitalise on once global demand revives.

Among the two major international trouble spots, US and Europe, economic data from the former indicates that its economy has stabilised to some degree in recent months. In Q3 2011 its GDP grew 2 per cent (revised downward from the initial 2.5 per cent), an improvement over the 1.3 per cent growth in Q2 and 0.4 per cent in Q1. The consumer confidence index is up, the unemployment rate has tapered downward to 8.6 per cent (from 9.2 per cent in July 2011), and jobless claims have also fallen.

On the policy front, the Indian government has indeed disappointed. Sectors like mining, infrastructure and capital goods have borne the brunt of delays in project approvals. After the government’s decision to hold in abeyance its decision to open up the retail sector further to FDI, doubts have arisen about its willingness and ability to push through long-pending reforms. Will the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Direct Tax Code (DTC) be implemented in 2012? Will the Land Acquisition Bill, the Mineral and Mining Bill, and the Company Amendment Bill receive Parliament’s approval? Noone can vouch for these reforms. In view of the xenophobic outpourings of the political class in the debate on FDI in retail, it is doubtful if proposals to raise the FDI limit in insurance or to allow foreign players into the education sector will receive the Parliament’s approval anytime soon. However, even on the reforms front there is room for optimism. Though the centre’s record will at best remain patchy, states like Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Bihar have initiated their own reforms. This is cause for celebration.

Overall, in 2012 (or FY13), the economy may not fare much worse than in 2011 (unless new risks appear), so undue pessimism about its prospects is unwarranted. But it is unlikely to fare much better either. Which raises the question: will the around 7 per cent growth rate (the current estimate by private-sector economists for both FY12 and FY13) suffice to meet the aspirations of an increasingly ambitious middle class that has tasted 8 per cent trend growth and knows it is achievable, if only the quality of governance were to improve?

Misplaced ardour
Indians’ excessive lust for gold is neither in their nor the country’s interest


John Maynard Keynes, the economist who revolutionised his subject with the idea that governments should undertake counter-cyclical spending to pull economies out of recession, once referred to Indians’ fondness for gold as the “the ruinous love of a barbaric relic”. His words ring true even today.

India remains the world’s largest consumer of gold. Indian households hold a cumulative 18,000 tonnes, which amount to 11 per cent of the total global stock. In 2010 India’s volume of gold consumed rose 72 per cent year-on-year. And despite prices reining high, consumption is up 5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2011.

In normal circumstances, Indians’ lust for the yellow metal would evoke neither comment nor worry. But these are not ordinary times. India, which consistently runs a current account deficit, depends on capital flows from abroad to fund the deficit. The ongoing crisis in the developed world has heightened risk aversion and led to capital outflows. How to fund a current account deficit of the order of 2.6 per cent of GDP (the figure for FY11, which could escalate to 3 per cent plus in FY12) has now become a source of worry.

Gold is India’s third-largest import item after crude oil and engineering goods. Remove gold from its list of imports and its current account remains negative, but shrinks to a much less intimidating -1.2 per cent of GDP (for FY11). By raising the country’s dollar needs, India’s gold lust is one of the factors responsible for the recent sharp depreciation of the rupee.

Even from a personal finance point of view, excessive allocation to gold in a portfolio is not wise. Most financial planners suggest limiting exposure to 5-8 per cent. It may be argued that over the last 10 years the cumulative returns from gold have topped 500 per cent. Over the past five years returns from gold have beaten equity returns handsomely. But that’s because global growth has been wobbly since 2008, and central banks have been printing money to jumpstart growth. Gold does well in such circumstances – when the economic climate is adverse, inflation reins high, and faith in paper currencies is low.

Like all asset classes gold too witnesses booms and busts. The only difference is that commodity cycles are much longer lasting than those of equities. Granted that gold may continue to outperform equities in the near future, given the likelihood of sluggish global growth for a couple of years or more. But gold’s already long bull run suggests that it may now be closer to the peak of its cycle than the bottom. Being overweight on the yellow metal at this stage is fraught with risk.

Furthermore, investments made in physical gold rather than in a financial instrument can’t be channelled into productive uses, say, for investment by either the government or a corporate. And all that an investor earns from this inert metal is capital gains; it pays no dividends.

So while gold may be a good investment for diversifying a portfolio and for providing a hedge against inflation, carrying this lust too far is neither in investors’ nor this country’s long-term interest.

HE Governor of Sikkim  presenting the first copy of
the book Sikkim's Raj Bhavan to the
Hon'ble President of India at Rashtrapati Bhavan

Bhutan-Assam border reopens after 10 yrs


Thimpu—A grand Fair and Craft Bazar at Subankhata in Assam, which is 25km away from Samdrupjongkhar town marked the opening of the Bhutan-Assam border that had remained sealed for almost a decade.

Before the border was sealed, farmers from Yurung gewog traded their farm produces such as vegetables, dry chillies, oranges, cardamom in the border town.

There are six Bhutanese stalls that sell garments and traditional food at the seven day fair which is also the second Indo-Bhutan friendship fair.

The border gate, Chawki is about six hours walk from Yurung gewog and around 35 km away from Samdrupjongkhar town towards Nanglam.

A 45 seater bus is arranged to ferry Bhutanese visitors to the fair for free.

One of the villagers Sergay Lhadon a mother of two recalled the days when they used to come with their products to Assam and stay overnight at the homes of their Assamese friends.

They returned home with rice, oil salt. “We were scared to cross border after the problems,” she said. “Now that it has re-opened I’m glad that my farm produces at least have a market.” Bhutan India Friendship Association’s (BIFA) youth secretary of Assam Anil Daimary assured that security personnel are deployed during the fair for the safety of the Bhutanese people.

BIFA’s secretary Norbu Wangdi said the fair is organised to revive the friendship between Bhutan and Assam. —AP

TEN WAYS FOR PEACE OF MIND

1. Non-interference In Others' Affairs Unless Asked To Do So

Most of us create our own problems by interfering too often in others' affairs. We do so because somehow we have convinced ourselves that our way is the best way, our logic is the perfect logic and those who do not conform to our thinking must be criticized and steered to the right direction, our direction. This thinking denies the existence of individuality and consequently the existence of a higher Reality..Each one of us is a unique manifestation. No two human beings can think or act in exactly the same way because each one of us is at a different physical, mental and intellectual evolutionary level as well as on the spiritual path. All men or women act the way they do driven by the nature's programming within. If we mind our own business we will keep our peace.

2. Forgive And Forget

This is the most powerful aid to peace of mind. We often develop ill feelings inside our heart for the person who insults us or harms us. We nurture grievances. This in turn results in loss of sleep, development of stomach ulcers, and high blood pressure. This insult or injury was done once, but nourishing of grievance goes on forever by constantly remembering it. The people whom we hate occupy a rent-free space in our hearts. We need to get over this bad habit. Life is too short to waste in such trifles. Forgive, Forget, and March On. Love flourishes in giving and forgiving.

3. Do Not Crave For Recognition

This world is full of selfish people. They seldom praise anybody without selfish motives. They may praise us today because we are in power or they benefit from us, but no sooner than we are powerless or they cease to benefit from us, they will forget our achievement and will start finding faults in us. Why should we wish to kill ourselves in striving for their recognition? Their recognition is not worth the aggravation. We should do our duties ethically and sincerely.

4. Do Not Be Jealous

We all have experienced how jealousy can disturb our peace of mind. We know that we work harder than our colleagues in the office, but sometimes they get promotions; we do not. We started a business several years ago, but we are not as successful as our neighbor whose business is only one year old. There are several examples like these in everyday life. Should we be jealous? No. Remember everybody's life is shaped by his/her destiny, which has now become his/her reality. If we are destined to be wealthy, nothing in the world can prevent it. If we are not so destined, nothing or no one can help us either. Nothing will be gained by blaming others for our misfortune. Jealousy will not get us anywhere; it will only take away our peace of mind.

5. Adjust According To The Environment

If we try to change the environment single-handedly, the chances are we will fail. We should change what we can and accept what we cannot change and accordingly adjust ourselves to our environment. We should also have the wisdom to know the difference between what we can and what we cannot change so that we do not waste our time and energy in attempting to do the impossible. As we do this, even the environment, which has been unfriendly to us, will mysteriously change and seem congenial and harmonious.

6. Endure What Cannot Be Cured

This is the best way to turn a disadvantage into an advantage. Every day we face numerous inconveniences, ailments, irritations, and accidents that are beyond our control. If we cannot control them or change them, we must learn to put up with these things. We must learn to endure them cheerfully. We should believe in ourselves and we will gain in terms of patience, inner strength and will power.

7. Not To Bite Off More Than One Can Chew

This maxim needs to be remembered constantly. We often tend to take more responsibilities than we are capable of carrying out. This is done to satisfy our ego. We should know our limitations. Why take on additional loads that may create more worries? We cannot gain peace of mind by expanding our external activities. We need to reduce our material engagements and spend time in introspection and meditation. This will reduce those thoughts in our mind that make us restless. Uncluttered mind will produce greater peace of mind and better work-output.

8. Meditate Regularly

Meditation calms the mind and gets rid of disturbing thoughts. This is the highest state of peace of mind. Try and experience it. If we meditate earnestly for half an hour everyday, our mind will tend to become peaceful during the remaining twenty-three and half-hours. Our mind will not be easily disturbed as it was before. We would benefit by gradually increasing the period of daily meditation. We may think that this will interfere with our daily work. On the contrary, this will increase our efficiency and we will be able to produce better results in less time.

9. Never Leave The Mind Vacant

An empty mind is the devil's workshop. All evil actions start in the vacant mind. We need to keep our mind occupied in something positive, something worthwhile. We should actively follow a hobby or do something that holds our interest. We must decide what we value more: money or peace of mind. Our hobby, like social work or religious work, may not always earn us more money, but we will have a sense of fulfillment and achievement. Even when we are resting physically, we should occupy ourselves in healthy reading, like books on positive thinking or contemplate on higher Reality.

10. Do Not Procrastinate And Never Regret

Do not waste time in protracted wondering should I or shouldn't I? Days, weeks, months, and years may be wasted in that futile mental debating. We can never plan enough because we can never anticipate all future happenings. We should value our time and do the things that need to be done. It does not matter if we fail the first time. We can learn from our mistakes and succeed the next time. Sitting back and worrying will lead to nothing. Whatever is destined not to happen will not happen, try as you may. Whatever is destined to happen will happen, do what you may to prevent it. This is certain. We should never brood over the past. DO NOT REGRET. Life is not a continuous procession of past regrets and future anxieties. Never ever live with regret. Whatever happened was destined to happen only that way. Why cry over split milk?