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Saturday, August 1, 2009

SENSEX AT 25000 IN 2 YEARS

Vishal Kampani, managing director of JM Financial Ltd and son of India's billionaire investment banker, Nimesh Kampani, spoke in an interview about his father's views on the India growth story. Edited excerpts: What is your father saying about the changes that have happened in the Indian economy, markets and the corporate world?
He is more bullish than I am.

He has always raised this issue with me about the US. He has always felt there are excesses in the US. They will create pain and give pain to the world one day. That is when India should gets its track right, and India will get its track right, and will emerge as a superpower over the next 5-10 years, economically and financially.
So, his advice is pretty similar. His advice is that you are getting long-term capital, you've got to be long-term greedy, not short-term greedy.

There is a fantastic opportunity in India to execute and we should follow that.

What he said (in a conversation) is that the Indian corporate needs to understand why a foreign investor wants to invest in him. A foreign investor is coming to an Indian corporate and willing to pay a higher multiple and trust him with billions of dollars because he thinks that Indian corporates are the gateway to India's growth. So, if he is able to demonstrate and execute in India's growth, he will be a large-scale company. But if he's going to use my capital and invest that capital internationally, without synergies into India, then I am not going to give him that capital and I am not going to give him the price to equity multiple.

So his story is that the India domestic story is very strong.
Focus on the India domestic story; raise more capital for growing India, at least over the next three to five years. You will get your chance in the sun when you will be larger than most foreign corporates. It is easier than to go and acquire those corporates.

You said he is more bullish than you. You said the Sensex will be 18,000 points in the next two quarters. What is his number?
He never gives a two-quarter view. He is more bullish on the real economy.

What about in two years? He probably sees the market at 25,000 two years from now.
He's very bullish.

Is he upset that he is not around when so much is happening in his country (He is currently in Dubai)?

Of course. He practically tells me that every day. That he is missing India. He is missing the moves. He wants to be a part of this entire growth. He wants to drive JM. He wants to make sure we have larger and higher market shares. He wants to be there for his corporate who he has serviced for the last 35 years.

cnbctv18@livemint.com

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