Contours of a Possible Indian Riposte to Chinese Aggressiveness

by Lalit Kumar

January 17, 2012
It is being prophesied that conflict with China is imminent and could come as soon as 2012-2014, and that such a conflict could quickly erupt into an all-out war in which India would be thoroughly outclassed and outnumbered leading to a massive defeat. Such a scenario is, however, unlikely to unfold for several reasons. Firstly, the Chinese are inadequately equipped at this time to gain an asymmetric advantage for prosecuting an all out war. They are also likely to be disinclined to pursue such an option for political and economic reasons, given that their priorities for the foreseeable future is economic development, coping with the effects of the global recession and ensuring the smooth transition to a new generation of leaders in 2012. Further, the Chinese at this point in time are quite vulnerable on several grounds. After assessing the weaknesses and gaps in Chinese capabilities and highlighting the positions of advantage that India enjoys, this essay proposes a strategy for a strong riposte against any Chinese adventurism.