China’s power play

China’s power play

India need not be indifferent to dams

by M.S.Menon

Reports in the state-run People’s Daily of China have confirmed that our neighbour has started damming the Yarlung-Tsangpo (Brahmaputra river) at Zangmu for a 510 MW hydro-electric project sited in the Gyaca county of Lhoka prefecture (Tibet). The project comprises a dam which is 116 m. high, 390 m.long across the river with a power plant having six generating units and will cost US$1.18 billion.

On India’s concerns, China has given the assurance that the project is not designed to divert the Brahmaputra waters and hence will not have any impact on the river flows in the downstream reaches.

The major problems haunting China today are water and power shortages. China knows that if these two issues are not addressed adequately, the consequences would be grave and its ambition to become a super power would be in the doldrums. Hence, it has focussed its attention to exploit the huge potential available in the water-rich Tibet region to overcome the looming crisis. The Zangmu project is to be followed by five other new dams at Jiexu, Jiacha, Lengda, Zhongda and Langzhen to meet the energy needs.

The uneven spatial distribution of water and land resources is the main reason for China to be concerned about water shortage, particularly in the northern and north-western provinces, for many decades. The humid South with 700 million people has one-third of the nation’s crop land and four-fifth of its water, while the arid north with 550 million people has two-third of the crop land and one-fifth of the water.

During the seventies a Chinese General, Guo Kai, is reported to have even proposed to hammer the Himalayas with 200 nuclear warheads to blast a 2-km wide air tunnel to divert the Indian monsoon to meet the water needs. Subsequently, he had also speculated to use Tibet’s waters, particularly of the Brahmaputra, by diverting its waters at the ‘great bend’ of the river. The great western diversion proposed by Guo Kai involves the construction of a mega structure there and a tunnel through the Himalayas to divert the water and generate power, which could be used to pump water.

The burgeoning population, increased industrial development, higher demand from agriculture and pollution in the rivers have further contributed to the water woes now, forcing the Chinese to plan for diverting water from the South to the North under the South-North Diversion Project through three links: the central, eastern and western routes. China has already started the construction of the central and eastern links. The western link is the modified version of Guo Kai’s dream project and is reported to be under study.

According to experts of the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, only research has been carried out about the huge potential available at the ‘great bend’ and no plan has been prepared so far. However, Chinese official news agency, Xinhua, had in 2003 confirmed the plans for the Tsangpo Water Diversion Project with two components, viz, a power plant with an installed capacity of more than 40,000 MW in the Metok area to utilise the potential of the river falling through 3,000 m and diversion of water by pumping to the provinces of Xingjiang and Gansu.

China has been discreet about the project, but according to recent reports, the construction of a117-km Metok highway with a tunnel to the Metok site linking the Indian border to National Highway 318 from Shanghai is in full swing to negotiate the difficult terrain of the Yarlung-Tsangpo gorge, presumably to facilitate the movement of materials and machinery for the project. Also, in the map of the Grid Corporation of China for 2020 the great bend area is shown as connected to the rest of the Chinese power supply, thereby indicating Chinese plans for the project in the area.

Environmental activists, both in China and abroad, have warned against building such a huge project in a seismically active and ecologically fragile area, but the authorities are emphatic that Tibet’s resources have to be used for economic advantage. Similarly, many experts have raised doubts about the engineering possibility of constructing such a project, considering the topographical and geological conditions of the rugged, high-altitude area. But China has proved its capability to overcome such difficulties with the construction of the rail track to Tibet and the gigantic Water Diversion Project to transfer 1.8 billion water annually to the Dehuofang reservoir across the Hun river through a 85.3-km tunnel in the equally formidable mountain ranges of North-East China.

China has every right to build dams in its part of the Brahmaputra and is not answerable to India since it is not bound by any treaty on water sharing with India. The joint declaration made in 2006 between the two enables only sharing hydrological data, which is not adequate to address our concerns.

True, we have been assured that these dams are meant only for power generation, but the disturbing fact is that China maintains a strategic silence on its river diversion plans. For example, in the past they were denying any plan for the Zangmu project in spite of satellite images showing activities in the project area. Only now they have confirmed it.

India has to be concerned about the Chinese projects because the reservoir operations could cause wide water-level fluctuations in the river downstream to upset the operations of the hydel schemes in Arunachal Pradesh. The experience of the co-basin states in the Mekong basin will be an eye-opener in this regard. The operations of the Chinese projects on the Mekong affected their agriculture, fisheries and tourism projects downstream and, when these governments protested, China denied the allegations.

Also, if the Chinese divert lean-season flows outside the basin for their projects, the schemes in Arunachal Pradesh would have to be shut down for want of minimum river flows, and if they release heavy discharges into a flooded Brahmaputra downstream, vast areas would be submerged in Arunachal Pradesh as was experienced in the year 2000. Unfortunately, at present there is no international law for trans-boundary rivers to control such unilateral actions.

India has also to remain prepared to face situations during possible conflicts since China always plans its infrastructure projects for dual use to meet the requirements of peace time and war as has been enunciated by Chairman Mao.

The moot question, therefore, is: Are we to remain satisfied with China’s assurances, or are we to take action to face such eventualities? Experience has taught us to remain prepared to deal with such situations. Hence, instead of remaining complacent with the Chinese assurances, let us get ready with plans to address these issues.

Indian experts had earlier identified and proposed a project with a large storage potential on the Siang (Brahmaputra) in Arunachal Pradesh which had adequate capacity to absorb the flood flows and also to even out water-level fluctuations caused by upstream projects. But the Indian government does not seem to be keen on this project, citing environmental objections.

Considering the strategic importance of the project, let us be ready with the project by implementing it expeditiously instead of waiting for the catastrophe to occur. Happenings in the Mekong basin and even our experience with floods in the past have already warned us. India cannot afford to ignore the likely threats from the liquid bombs ticking away in Tibet, having enough potential to become weapons of mass destruction.

source:The Tribune