By 2037, half the world will live in cities of emerging markets
Hindu
London, April 6:
A huge shift in urbanisation “from the West to India, China and
other fast growing economies” is happening. According to a a report,
Opportunities in an Urbanising World, published this week by Credit
Suisse, by 2037 half the world's population will live in cities in “emerging
markets.” The report is based on UN data and estimates.
Year 2044 will be a crucial milestone for India: when 50 per cent
of the country will be urbanised, the report estimates.
By 2015, there will be 52 cities in India with more than 1 million
people. While India will be one of the last major countries to shift from a
majority rural to a majority urban population, between now and 2050 that rate of
urbanisation will step up markedly, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.1
per cent “nearly double China's 1.2 per cent CAGR. By 2050, 875 million people,
or 54 per cent of India's estimated population in 2050 will live in cities (a
level of urbanisation still well below Brazil's 94 per cent, or China's 73 per
cent).
Up until 2050 six of the 25 fastest growing major cities in the
world will be in India, with seven in China and not a single one in the
so-called developed world. And while Kinshasa is set to be the fastest growing
city from 2015 to 2020, New Delhi will take that title between 2020 and 2025.
The shift from the West will be accompanied by potentially huge
economic gains for the newly urbanising countries: the Credit Suisse study
estimates that a 5 per cent increase in urbanisation leads to 10 per cent gain
in per capita economic activity with a particular “sweet spot” for countries
with an urbanisation rate of 30 to 50 per cent (India's, it estimates is 31 per
cent).
However, while the report is mostly positive about China's ability
to capitalise on the economic opportunities presented by urbanisation, with
India the report expresses reservations, warning that “underinvestment in cities
is at critical levels”.
“It is not too late for India to create an economic succession
from its progression to an urbanised nation if the Government begins immediately
to implement the necessary bold policy measures to tackle the underinvestment,
poor planning and management and lack of infrastructure development which has
thus far characterised the expansion of its cities.
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