India-China ties after Wen’s visit
The missing ‘stabilising effect’

by Balbir K. Punj

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit was described by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as indicating a transformation in Sino-Indian relations before the event. After the event, all that South Block let it be known was that it had a “stabilising effect” on the relationship.

Wen has lost no time in disabusing Delhi of any such optimism. From here he flew down to Islamabad. And the balance-sheet of the two visits speak for itself about what the communist Chinese think of our Prime Minister’s soft power. Wen announced in Pakistan deals worth $25 billion. In India, he had concluded commercial pacts worth only $16 billion. And that, too, did not narrow the huge gap in favour of China in Sino-Indian trade — the Wen deal only widens that gap. So, South Block has yet to explain in what way its promised pressure on Wen to narrow the trade gap in favour of India has worked.

Not only did Wen not give any assurance or even distant hope of a Chinese aboutturn on India’s attempt for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, in Islamabad he made it clear that he was firmly behind his Pakistan ally on most international political questions. And no one needs to be told what Pakistan thinks of the Indian plea for this seat. Our officialdom has sought to find some solace in his private dialogue with Dr Manmohan Singh. The distinguished visitor, the “sources” assure us has said that China would not be an obstacle in the Indian quest for this seat, but how convincing such a promise from Wen is when that indication was not there in any of the Chinese Premier’s public statements? Read in the context of what he later said in Islamabad in complete backing of Pakistan, the green shoot New Delhi thought there has simply been shown as an illusion, if not a delusion of his host, Dr Manmohan Singh.

The Chinese visitor did not give any assurance either on the stapled visa issue or on Pakistan’s sponsorship of terror against India. If New Delhi was looking for some bright spots in the long dialogue between the two Prime Ministers here, Wen made it clear in Islamabad what his stand is. He praised Pakistan for its attempt to tackle Al-Qaeda terror but said nothing on Pakistan’s own sponsorship of Jihadis across the border into India. During the Indian visit, the Chinese Premier did not say a word about the 26/11 attack or on Pakistan’s contretemps on prosecuting the perpetrators of that attack. Instead, during his Pakistan visit, Wen was saying that terrorism was not to be linked to any country or religion. “Let us not have any dual standards in this regard”, Wen told the Pakistan Parliament-that was perhaps a line from our own Digvijay Singh’s mouth because as against New Delhi’s official stand of Pakistan-based terrorism, abetted by the government there, the Congress party itself now speaks of “majority terrorism” in India, thereby giving solace to Pakistan. Wen could point to this and talk back at New Delhi.

The Chinese Premier said that Pakistan and his country were “all-weather strategic partners”. That means “the Chinese government and people will stand by you to face all challenges together”. That leaves no scope for China to annoy Pakistan by making any concession in its disputes with India. Hence no Chinese commitments on issues concerning India. The Wen visit to India has gone all the way the Chinese wanted.

New Delhi is sulking and seeking to cover up its failures by finding some hope in the small mercies that Wen Jiabao showed. As small as the visiting Prime Minister agreeing to raise the level of economic dialogue and have the Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia to chair the economic strategic dialogue between the two countries, is considered as “a big plus”. In the absence of anything else from the visit, the UPA government is clutching on the straws.

After what the Chinese Premier said in Pakistan there should be no doubt left anywhere that Beijing will use Islamabad to counter and harass India. There is no change in that strategy that communist China adopted long ago taking a lesson from the Nehruvian lollypop treatment towards emerging China. We wrote off Tibet without a protest and let the Chinese occupy it. And then closed our eyes when they went about building roads and occupying chunks of our territory in Aksai Chin and elsewhere. Remember Nehru’s blue-eyed boy Krishna Menon describing that territory in the 1960s as one “where not a blade of grass grew”.

If Dr Manmohan Singh had any illusion that the Chinese are now coming round — “sources” claimed they are citing China’s acceptance of Sikkim as an Indian territory — Beijing had disabused them of it. Just before Wen set foot on India, Beijing had said that the Sino-Indian border was only 2,000-km long. The official position of New Delhi is that it is 3,600 km even without including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s border with China. That means China has already claimed as its some 1600 km of the border area. So, it is as usual heads-I-win, tails-you-keep” syndrome. Parts of Kashmir’s border with China is not considered a Sino-Indian border by Beijing. This is a new element in the dispute between the two countries. And this is linked to China’s refusal to consider J&K as an integral part of India.

For all the red carpet that Dr Manmohan Singh rolled out for his Chinese counterpart, there was total opposition from premier Wen regarding the Kashmir question. The issue of stapled visas for anyone going from J&K to China was supposed to have been discussed by the two Prime Ministers. Apparently, the issue was discussed among the two Prime Ministers. But the Chinese leader stood his ground and would not even acknowledge the existence of the legal position. Obviously, all this partly linked to the position China has taken that it considers J&K as a disputed territory. That provides advantage to its friend Pakistan.

New Delhi claims a weak defence of its position by revealing that in the joint communique it has also not allowed any reference to “one China” policy as a retaliation. But that hardly matters for Beijing that has consolidated its position in Tibet with new roads and rail link to Lhasa and from there to the border and total suppression of Tibetans. Further, China has encouraged Chinese to occupy chunks of Tibet and change its demographic environment. Tibetans are now a minority in their homeland. History records how the Nehru government disregarded its own ambassador’s advice not to sign off Tibet.

In recent months India has, through its short-sighted policy of playing second fiddle to America, agreed to resume talks with Pakistan despite Islamabad making no concessions on any issue. Therefore, the Obama visit, despite much trumpet-blowing, brought no concrete results. Now the Wen visit has followed suit. Only New Delhi goes on claiming “stabilising effect” without specifying where that “stabilising effect” of the visit is being felt.