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Showing posts with label CLIMATE CHANGE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CLIMATE CHANGE. Show all posts

Monday, September 20, 2010

Himalayan glaciers: Weaknesses in IPCC review to the fore

by R. Ramachandran

Mechanism had failed to scrutinise the voluminous main assessment report

The review by the Inter-Academy Council (IAC) of the working of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released on August 30, has brought out some interesting facts about the Himalayan glacier controversy.

Significantly, besides revealing the weaknesses in the multi-layered process established by the IPCC to review draft chapters of its reports and correct errors, the IAC report highlights the shortcomings in the internal process of review within the government when the reports are received by it for comments.

The observation on the Himalayan glaciers in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC, issued in 2007, was one of the controversial statements in the report that led the Panel to request the IAC on March 10 to ?conduct a thorough and independent review of the processes and procedures followed by the IPCC in preparing its Assessment Reports.?

The controversial statement on the Himalayan glaciers appeared in Section 10.6.2 of the report of the Working Group II on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Citing a 2005 report of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), a non-peer-reviewed (grey) literature, it said: ?Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world?and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by? 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by ? 2035.?

The WWF report had, in turn, cited a 1999 report of the Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology (WGHG) of the International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) whose chairman at that time was the well-known Indian glaciologist, Syed Iqbal Hasnain, formerly of the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and now with The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi. The ICSI report had also resulted in a New Scientist article in June 1999 that quoted Professor Hasnain as saying that the Himalayan glaciers would vanish within 40 years as a result of global warming.

Investigating the error, the IAC committee examined the draft text of the chapter in question and the relevant reviewer comments. The committee's analysis showed that six experts reviewed this section in the first draft and, interestingly, none of their comments was critical. However, at the stage of the second draft, which is sent to both the governments and expert reviewers, two comments were related to the erroneous statement on Himalayan glaciers, but neither of them was from the Indian government or any Indian expert.

David Saltz of the Desert Research Institute, Ben Gunion University, Israel, had pointed to the contradiction in the text, which spoke of glaciers disappearing by 2035, and in the same breath said their total area would shrink by 2035. However, the authors or the review editors ?missed? clarifying this and failed to change the text.

Another reviewer, Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University, questioned the conclusions of the section and referred to the work that arrived at different conclusions. Professor Fowler pointed out that measurements by Hewitt suggested that the western Himalayan glaciers were expanding and added that the changes in precipitation and temperature trends, which he along with D. R. Archer had observed, also supported that. After merely noting on the margins, ?Was unable to get hold of the suggested references; will consider in the final version,? the writing team failed to act upon this comment and the final version of the chapter remained unchanged.

Professor Fowler and Mr. Archer had said in their 2006 paper: ?The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the Western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.?

In contrast to the final version of the WG II report, the final version of the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), however, does not have any statement on the Himalayan glaciers. This is because the (second) draft version of the report, which is sent to experts and the governments, elicited a response from the Indian government and, interestingly, none from any expert.

The remark included in the draft SPM from Section 10.6.2 was: ?If the current warming rates are maintained, the Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid rates, shrinking from the present 500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by 2030s.? The Indian government had commented: ?This is a very drastic conclusion. Should have a supporting reference otherwise should be deleted.? In response, the writing team removed the contentious statement from the SPM.

But what is interesting to note here is the lacuna in the review process within the government machinery. While it, or the experts that it had appointed to review, failed to detect the more drastic statement in the main report, it succeeded in raising the flag on the remark included in the SPM. This only means that the review mechanism had failed to scrutinise the voluminous main report but only went through the 20-page summary.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

State Govt gears up for State Action Plan on Climate Change

GANGTOK, May 14 (IPR): A brainstorming workshop was organized by the State Government for preparation of State Action Plan on Climate Change on Sikkim in collaboration with German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) here at Chintan Bhawan on May 14.

The Chief Secretary TT Dorji, who chaired the workshop in his opening remarks expressed gratitude to GTZ for supporting this important workshop and said that the State Government is keen to take up appropriate action oriented programmes so that the damages due to adverse effect of climate change to the lives and property are minimized.

Sikkim, he said, has a long history and tradition of following the path of sustainable development and has always remained proactive for taking various measures for environmental protection.

“There is a need for enhancing the effort for taking programmes for augmenting drinking water availability both in urban and rural areas during lean season,” he said adding “special emphasis need to be given for rain shadow areas of drier belt in South and West Sikkim.”

Mr Dorji further stressed on the need to strengthen the programme of Spring Water Recharge or Dhara Vikas and stream water storage and developing of irrigation channel in drier belt areas. “The State Pollution Control Board should ensure quality of river water while the industries coming up in the state should fully treat effluents before discharging in rivers and streams,” he added.

The Chief Secretary laid emphasis on drought hardy traditional crops and plantation of fruit trees which are more resilient to climate change. He further informed that the Government of India has already formed a National Action Plan on Climate Change and Eight National Missions has been envisaged in various fields. Sikkim, he added, should take maximum advantage of financial resources which will be available in future though these Eight Missions.

He hoped that during the two days of Brainstorming Session various priority areas would be concretized for taking programmes for climate change Adaptation.

Thereafter, the workshop was addressed by Vera Scholz, NRM Programme Director, GTZ. She was impressed with the work initiated by the Government of Sikkim in the field of Climate Change and said that Sikkim may be the first state among the Himalayan states to have a State Level Action Plan on Climate Change.

During the course of the programme, a thematic presentation was made by Nitasha Sharma, IISc, Bangalore while Ravindra Singh of GTZ made a power point presentation on Climate Change adaptation in the north east.

Sandeep Tambe of RMDD and Sanjay Tomar of GTZ proposed a framework for preparing SAPCC and Mr Dhrupad Chowdhary of ICIMOD made spoke on Climate change impacts in the eastern Himalayas and was followed by interactive session..

Earlier, the welcome address was delivered by ML Arrawatia, Secretary, State Science and Technology Department.

On May 15, the wrap up session of thematic group work will be held under the chairmanship of Additional Chief Secretary, Government of Sikkim, Karma Gyatso.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

DARJEELING: No swallows, no snow. And soon, no apples either


BY DEEP GAZMER AND ANAND BODH

There was a time, not too long ago, when the air around Darjeeling was as crisp as the tea it produced. The abusive Indian summer hardly ever Reduced forest cover in Himachal Pradesh has led to a rise in temperatures and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere touched the Queen of the Hills and tourists had a good time round the year. But that’s changing.

Flora and fauna are depleting and, landslides, brought about by changing rainfall patterns, are now common. The changing climate has impacted the agricultural sector, too. With water resources drying up, those who live in the hill town face acute drinking water crisis as well.

The dark winters are giving way, too. These days, there’s more winter sunshine in the Hills than in the Terai. It’s been years since schools gave sunshine holidays to excited students. There is more of it now. Perhaps it has to do with the sun, but rhododendrons and magnolia are blooming as early as January and it is surprising a lot of people.

One of them happens to be Bharat Prakash Rai, secretary of the Federation of Society for Environment Protection (FOSEP) in Darjeeling. “Normally, the flowers would bloom around February,” he says, ” but the January blooming has confused many migratory bird species, used as they are to reaching later. Birds are pollinating agents, but due to early flowering, they are often absent in the region due to this confusion.”

A few years ago, places like Kurseong and Tindharia used to swarm with sparrows and swallows. The birds were virtually everywhere – lined up atop electric poles and telephone wires, a sight that was part of the landscape. In fact, the chirping of birds, especially swallows, is woven firmly into the very fabric of social life here, finding mention in folksongs and lore.

Sadly, the birds have all but disappeared. Instead, the new winged guests of the Hills are flies and mosquitoes, hitherto found only in the plains of Siliguri and beyond. “Due to warmer weather and a corresponding increase in insects and germs, things like ginger and oranges are rarely growing to potential. It was different 10 years ago,” says Rai, shaking his head.

Marigold, an integral part of Nepali culture, what with Tihar and Bhaitika (the Nepali version of Diwali and Bhaidooj) being incomplete without garlands strung from these, grows perceptibly less these days. Men nowadays pin just one flower – instead of the time-honoured garland – to their coat lapels in nostalgic symbolism.

The biggest threat though is the steady drying up of natural sources of water and the increasingly rare bouts of snowfall, something that can play havoc with an economy heavily dependent on tourism.

There is deep concern in Himachal Pradesh too. At the Himalayan Chief Ministers’ conclave on climate change, held in Shimla in October this year, environmentalists said the Hills couldn’t wait for a comprehensive, national policy to come into effect. They said they needed to do something on their own. Now.

They have reason to panic. Even as glaciers are melting, temperatures in the region are heading north, triggering unprecedented sale of ACs and fans. Kullu valley alone has become warmer by an average of 0.9°C in the last three decades. Other parts of the state have seen a rise ranging between 0.3 to 1.7°C, bringing down the number of ‘chilling hours’ required for a good apple crop from 1,200 to 800 hours.

Until a few years ago, people in Kullu, especially around Bhuntar, Bajaura, Katrain and Patlikuhl, would have laughed it off as a joke had they been told that one day they would need fans to get a comfortable night’s sleep.

Dr R K Sood, joint member-secretary in the Himachal Pradesh State Council for Science Technology and Environment , says no one finds that funny anymore. According to Sood, global warming is just one aspect of the problem; largescale construction, rapid increase in the number of vehicles and population growth have compounded the problem.

“Deforestation has reduced green cover in the hills. This, in turn, has resulted in a rise in temperatures. The situation will only worsen as global warming will melt glaciers, which are the main source of natural irrigation in the region, and lead to a droughtlike situation soon,” says Dr S S Samant, scientist-in-charge at G B Pant Institute. Himachal Pradesh Agriculture University, Palampur, released a report recently, which says that in about 30 years from now, growing apples may not be possible in the traditional Himalayan belt of Kinnaur, Shimla and Kullu districts.

nior scientist G C Kuniyal says, “In 1965, the apple belt was found at a height of 1,000 metres above sea level. Now, it’s 2,000 metres. Apple orchards, which were abundant in Bajaura (1,000 metres) until some years back, can now be found only in Katrain (2,000 metres) near Manali.”

As Dr Tej Partap Singh Thakur, vice-chancellor at Palam pur University, says, “Farmers are shifting from apples, which used to pump Rs 1,700 crore into the local economy, to other crops. And it’s not just apples that are in danger.”

Saturday, October 31, 2009

GLACIER IN HIMALAYAS RETREATING FAST- A FACT

Measurements carried out in 1960-1984, 1984-1998 and 2001-2005 in Chotta Shigri glacier showed a retreat rate of 7 meter, 16-17m and 17-18 meter per year respectively indicated fast retreating rate of the glacier.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

HIGH LEVEL DELHI CONFERENCE ON CLIMAT CHANGE

The Delhi Statement on Global Cooperation on Climate Technology, adopted at the conclusion of the two-day ‘Delhi High Level Conference on Climate Change: Technology Development and Transfer,’ on Friday called for urgently accelerating the large scale global deployment of environmentally sound and climate-friendly technologies.

Focussing on minimising the time lag between development of such technologies, transfer and deployment, the statement said, it should be promoted by sustained and enhanced international cooperation as well as appropriate national action.

Appreciating the roles of both public and private financing, the participants agreed that public financing could catalyse activities such as capacity-building, needs assessments, and the more rapid deployment and adoption of technologies, especially in those developing countries most vulnerable to climate change, Connie Hedegaard, chair of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP-15) said.

“Enhanced cooperation worldwide is essential at all stages of technology cycle. Existing mechanisms, as well as any new and innovative mechanisms in the public and public-private domains for global cooperation, should enhance adaptation and use of environmentally-sound and climate-friendly technologies and the joint research and development of new technologies and products.

“Concepts such as a centre, or networks of centres, to support and stimulate rapid development and deployment of innovative technologies should be explored. Such institutions should also promote collaboration between governments, industries and research communities of developed and developing countries,” the statement said.

The participants agreed that the wide diversity of available technologies and the conditions of their applicability indicated a need for periodic assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new and emerging technologies. “There is a critical need to improve the identification of, access to, and deployment of technologies for adaptation, especially to developing countries that are most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, the statement said, while urging upon the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at their 15th session at Copenhagen, to take into consideration the elements of this statement.

Friday, October 23, 2009

MELTING GLACIERS IN BHUTAN

Reports indicate that the melting of the Himalayan glaciers is threatening the kingdom of Bhutan, the impacts of which will adversely affect the entire South Asian region.

According to a report in Nature News, glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating faster than in any other part of the world and they could disappear completely by 2035. This puts the mountainous nation of Bhutan at a special risk. In an area smaller than Switzerland, it has 983 glaciers and 2,794 glacial lakes, some of which have burst to produce deadly glacial lake floods.

A nation without even its own helicopter, Bhutan lacks the resources to combat global warming. It is carrying out the work at Thorthormi glacier with the help of money from various international donors.

As the first nation to get adaptation money from the Least Developed Countries Fund, Bhutan is something of a pioneer among developing nations in their quest to adapt to a warmer future, and the struggles at Thorthormi glacier illustrate the enormous obstacles that adaptation efforts still face. It is only within the past decade that researchers realized that Thorthormi could pose a threat. Thorthormi’s ponds were expanding and merging to form larger bodies of water. The changes have been dramatic even in the past few months. “Just before we started our work here in July this year, that part of the lake was water,” said Karma Toeb, the project’s glaciologist and team leader, pointing down to a number of icebergs. “The ice blocks have been breaking off the mother glacier upstream,” he added.

According to Thinley Namgyel, the deputy chief environment officer at the National Environment Commission in Thimphu, “A few decades down the line, the glaciers will retreat and we are not sure what impact it will have on the economy.” But, the impacts of the melting of the Himalayan glaciers will reach far beyond Bhutan’s borders. The glacier-fed rivers that flow south from the Himalayas are the arteries of south Asia.

It is estimated that the retreat of glaciers will affect the water supply of roughly 750 million people across South Asia and China, according to Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Across Asia, there are countless cases like Thorthormi, where the needs are great and the resources scarce. Regarding the effects of climate change and their costs, “every single estimate that people have come up with has been exceeded by reality”, said Dr. Pachauri. “The impacts of climate change are clearly turning out to be much worse than what we had anticipated earlier,” he added.

Source:The Hindu